SP500 - Two Extreme Paths & Money Management

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
These 2 paths are the extremes for the next 5 months.

Running a short stance, I need to have a position that survives 2155 by end of Mar15.

In both cases, I should have a pullback to 2050 by end Apr15.

If SPX trades 2150 before it trades 2050, I will be in recovery mode and would exit at 2050.

Monitor the VIX second contract:
- Now at 17.10, if it crosses below 16.40, SPX could be on the blue path.
- Although I would recover the loss/make some money at the end, my trade idea would be wrong and it have used risk for too long in negative territories.


Apologies, Yacine I'm not sure what you are suggesting here. I have been following your idea for some time. One wonders what global scenario is going to shake the market out of complacency....
Hi Pezq,
This was just a money management email for short or a maximum target for longs.

in this particular post:
- I am suggesting nothing.
- I illustrate the two extremes scenario and as I am playing short, I evaluate the worst case for my position and prepare myself psychologically so 2155 in 4 weeks does not surprise me too much so i dont capitulate when the market is about to give a 5% correction.

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