claydoctor

SPX500 3 theories to consider

Short
FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
5
Borrowed an idea from Bulkowski, with the rounded top, mirror formation as theory #1. Then the pitchfork trend now in play continues, #2. Then #3, consider the trend line support, curiously bouncing off yesterday that line. The green triangle is the area to watch for me anyways. China is the wild card, for breaking news. Retail sales numbers also a force, a beat says FED can tighten in Sept, a disappoint, another reason to wait until December. But when does the market take bad news as bad news again for the economy and tie it to the markets. With money managers chasing yield desperately, stock buy backs are the new bubble. When it becomes obvious that a major stock will fall too fast, too much, and buy backs are so obvious as their only support, speculators expect the buy back, and have been buying that dip moment/pivot. But when that buy back doesn't work, because it is so obvious, that's when buy backs become bad news, and the shorts finally win. Also options expiration Fridays now become a huge tension moment with so many shorts doing option shorts to gain even more leverage for yield purposes, that's where I get scared and fear is a factor. When everyone is using options for leverage and yield, and with the bond market so Illiquid, and everyone doing their thing on the same side of the boat, that's when the boat capsizes, and we could get a double wammy. Be careful out there. Bring your umbrella,booties, and rain gear. End of the day, this market is so heavy, its on artificial life support, down is like gravity now, after perhaps this short bounce.
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