FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
1600 36 27
2 years ago
Analysis on chart.
Quarterly uptrend expired, the rgmov wave count suggests we are at the end of a corrective leg.
The price chart suggests we are completing a terminal pattern with a diametric at the end of C.

According to Glenn Neely's wave count this is a B rally, so the next leg should be a very sharp C wave down!
I'm placing a short based on the time at mode weekly signal, using the monthly chart's range expansion entry, which placed my stop slightly above the weekly downtrend mode.

The advance from the top has been incredibly violent and created a series of ripple effects throughout the global currency, metals and equity markets.
The risk off rally in the Yen and this will be my vehicles of choice to surf the waves in this bear market.

Good luck if you take this trade!

Ivan.
a year ago
Comment: Can move SL to break even now. 1970.4
a year ago
Comment: Stop at BE might get taken out. Either let it hit it and reshort higher, or take the pain and leave the SL be and add to shorts higher.
a year ago
Trade closed: stop reached: Break even stop on the short, ages ago.
Posting updated chart this week.
IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
DJIA is the exact same, logically:

snapshot
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claydoctor IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I am hearing maybe we stop at a 20% downside from the top? I have not decided yet.
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IvanLabrie PRO claydoctor
2 years ago
I don't think we can know yet.
All I know is it's possible to short here with good probabilities of at least hitting 1344, be it a wave A or 1.
I think it's a wave 1, but I'm biased because that would make it an absolutely great setup.
Time at mode tells me the retest of the mode is the sane target to expect.
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VictoriaRich IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Ivan u chart look to small i cannot see anything can u please explain what u will do?where to sell again ,,?Thank u so much
+1 Reply
aziz92 VictoriaRich
2 years ago
me too!
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
Here's an associated pair trade:

snapshot
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VictoriaRich
2 years ago
Ivan where u from?
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VictoriaRich
2 years ago
u wll sell again in 1970?
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VictoriaRich
2 years ago
Whereu want short again SPX 500,?
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
I added to my position today, 1/2 size, stop 2029.10, entry was 1985.
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evanbright IvanLabrie
2 years ago
nice trade
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IvanLabrie PRO evanbright
2 years ago
Hopefully I'm right, we might see a very dramatic move down, even sharper than the recent Black Monday event (even though the leg down started earlier, people noticed on Monday):

This indicator from Tim West's Key Hidden Levels pack lets you see price waves clearly, individual bars lack this insight without some right hemisphere engaging:

snapshot


You took the trade Evan?
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evanbright IvanLabrie
2 years ago
yap I placed my sell between 1980 and 1990, the average is 1983 and I'm going to add my position next week if it goes up.
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IvanLabrie PRO evanbright
2 years ago
Great, and stop loss? 2029 is pretty safe, but I wanted to be extra sure so I went with 2104.7 initially. After seeing the market reach my entry zone I felt a bit safer for the scale in.
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evanbright IvanLabrie
2 years ago
My stop loss is 2046:), hopefully it won't go that high
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IvanLabrie PRO evanbright
2 years ago
If we're right here it won't.
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
snapshot
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evanbright IvanLabrie
2 years ago
very ambitious target, but why 1344? 100% of 671? And Ivan are you still trading btc? I had been investing btc for 2 years
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IvanLabrie PRO evanbright
2 years ago
1344 was the most common price during the uptrend since the 2009 low. 'Accepted fair value', price will return to it if the downtrend is valid.
Looks very good so far!
BTC; yes, I own 70% BTC and 30% Ethereum, in my bitcoin/altcoin account. Lending and trading those on the side.
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keshavreddi IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Ivan, what is short trading strategy? are you shorting stocks or buying puts? how long to you plan to hold the shorts?
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IvanLabrie PRO keshavreddi
2 years ago
Shorting using CFDs personally. I'm not an expert on options trading, so, I'd suggest you ask that to the following: Tim West, Yacine Kanoun, UCSGEARS or JR.
This is a potentially long term trade, I'll manage it and add using the daily chart and monthly. Check out Tim West's SP1! publication, posted today.
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keshavreddi IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks Ivan for quick reply. I am following Tim West posts as well, his posts are very helpful as yours.
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IvanLabrie PRO keshavreddi
2 years ago
Tim's my mentor, when he posts, be sure to pay attention. Really great insights.
Good luck to us all!
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keshavreddi IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Sure. Good luck to all :)
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
I guess that we can trail stops to break even after the market opens today but to be sure I'll move to 1995.40.
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
Added a scale in at:

#1 1934.9, SL 1968.2, 50% tp at 1901.6
#2 1951.6, SL 1968.2, 50% tp at 1901.6
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
Dow:

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
snapshot


Some time at mode and fibonacci targets. Time and price look optimal from a neowave perspective from what I can observe with my amateur eyes.
As for time at mode, in a day, if we close below the mode, trend will be down, and if we expand range down during NFP, it'll signal a downtrend aiming for the box #1 targets on chart. (1787-1780.6)
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claydoctor IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Shorts got creamed today, you still a bear now? Or has this market turned back up trend?
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO claydoctor
2 years ago
I'm happily holding and adding to shorts.
The logic of my analysis methodology points to a massive drop next, this is just sideways action, coiling...The calm before the storm.
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claydoctor IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hope you are right, because I added to my shorts also. Got me a little nervous though. Hold course.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO claydoctor
2 years ago
If we keep track of our emotions we can determine if it's a good idea to book profits, add, reduce exposure, etc.
Great lessons from George Soros, check out his book: "Alchemy of finance" (maybe you've already read it and I'm preaching to the choir here).
Personal reccomendation from Tim West, a really great read.

Additionally, check out this combo:
UCSGEARS
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evanbright IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thank you for your insights Ivan, this is very helpful:)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
snapshot

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
Monthly SL entry still valid.
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