If there is no justification for the rate rise, and alot of data looks transitory to flat/weak, then we are arguing the economy is weak. Well, if the economy is weak and the indicators start pointing to it, QE4 is on the tables and a long term short trade a lost cause. Thankfully CPI lifted at last report. Needless to say, no matter what the Fed say, if inflation dives they will initiate QE4. They are fully committed, they will have to remain committed. There is no unwinding from this course. Look at Japan.
Bernanke said it clearly. He will never see normalised interest rates in his lifetime.
However, saying this, a market shock at these elevated valuation levels, with liquidity at worrying levels, will most likely see a quick downside move. There is no more real demand on the buy-side except for corporate buybacks. Hence, why we're seeing the market fatten and the move down post earnings releases in Oct 14. And a shock might come, when the oligarchs need it to for political reasons or they have exited equities and ready for the bear to rape and pillage the common folk once more.
Watch the dollar. The real risk is on bond carry trades unwinding when the dollar gets stronger. The contagion from this is far reach to every geography, industry and asset class. Oil is a by-product of the real $ play. Equally, $ plays a major role in forward inflation (QE4 indicator) and it's the prefered choice of weapon in the unfolding geopolitical changes.