YaKa

SPX - but in big picture the bullish case is too dysneylandesque

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
924 9 17

There are interesting things in the area in big picture (it has been true for the last few months and here is just a retest).

Also carrying on in the cone is really too academic clean.

cfetrader
2 years ago
Exquisite chart. Indeed we are witnessing great SPX index events unfolding. Both the peak time spacing of 7.5 years and the Fibonacci extended (1.618) target reaching (or nearing; about 2138) are indicative of a cycle top. The question remains of the intensity and duration of the ensuing correction.
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YaKa PRO cfetrader
2 years ago
except for the 2000/2007 timing, has 7.5y been important in the past? geniune question
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cfetrader YaKa
2 years ago
In 2000, the all time Dow chart mega-wave III ended and currently we are in a mega-wave IV (true bear) cycle, of which we had the sequence of waves a (2003)- b (2007)- (a) (2009)- (b) (2015)- (c)&c (ending ? ; probably 2020), After it's completion a magnificent mega-wave V will commence. That is my Elliott wave view of the market.

If the correction is of low intensity (marking a wave 4 since 2009), then the current move will continue upwards as a true mega-wave V (with plenty of wave 5 extensions), cancelling the previous scenario. This would directly imply a complete mega-wave IV correction of the type A (2003)- B (2007)- C(2009). Only time will tell.
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YaKa PRO cfetrader
2 years ago
Yes - all these scenarios coexist and Elliott will fall on his legs whatever happens... I am interested when there are legs common to all scenarios.
re the 7.5years nothing special in the past right?
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cfetrader YaKa
2 years ago
The 7.5 year interval is very important after 2000, which marks the beginning of the current bear mega-cycle (my opinion). As you can see from my previous comment, the magnificent Elliott Wave approach to market analysis covers both bearish and bullish future trend options. Whichever prevails depends heavily upon the correction characteristics.
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YaKa PRO cfetrader
2 years ago
since 2000, we did not have enough time to experience many 7.5 y intervals... it may be just a coincidence that we are at same time (like a broken clock...)
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cfetrader YaKa
2 years ago
We have the Elliott wave structure to guide us and your excellent chart with the well indicated ascending wedge formation. The sinewave identifying peaks after 2000 (curve tops 2000-2007-2015; approx,) is just an interesting concept to be tested in the future, I rely more on the patterns and the momentum indicators,
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pezq PRO YaKa
2 years ago
Hi Yaka my chart now looks like this. I think the markets have given up on getting any income from interest rates....
snapshot
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YaKa PRO pezq
2 years ago
sorry but i cant extract anything from very arty charts like these. Can you tell me what you conclude? how?
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