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alx13
Feb 28, 2016 4:05 PM

SPX - turn started or is there another high coming? Short

S&P 500 index of US listed sharesFXCM

Description

Zooming in to the hourly chart, the (presumed) C wave looks to be in the final stages. The previously pointed impulsive decline was entirely retraced so it is very likely that it was part of (yet another) flat correction, which was likely a 4th wave.

So now we appear to be in the last 5th wave of the mentioned C wave. The big question now is if the 5th is already finished or if it still needs another wave (and a new high) to finish. We will likely find out on Monday already, since if the 1941 level is broken, that would likely mean the 5th is done, since that would overlap wave 1. There is an outside chance that even if we overlap wave 1, that is part of a bull nest (so a series of 1-2) - that will be invalidated only below 1922, but I view that as low odds.

The importance of how the market behaves near term is highlighted also by the cycle study from mcm:
mcm-ct.com/blog/mcm-newsletter-outlook-for-week-29-feb-6-mar/

Good luck to your trades!
Comments
BrianGoldman
I like this chart and like the notion of hitting 5 up at 1980.
alx13
Thank you.

The important thing to look for very short term is if 1941 is overlapped or not, IMO. If it is, I see rather low odds of the o/n high from Friday being taken out.
BrianGoldman
Here's my roadmap..but tonight's futures will tell the tale....

Sun 2/28 We should open down near 1930.
Mon 2/29 9:30 am - 1936; 2:05 pm inflection??? High for the day 1950...disappointing as this will trap me.
Tues. 3/1 Open near 1940 and close at 1961
Wed. 3/2 1:30 pm dip and dap around 1934-36...should be bottom for the Week. If this is the case that hints that Mercury might be in play here vs. the Moon.
Thurs. 3/3 - Between Wednesday and Thursday (Futures) we will consolidate between 1938 - 44. Then on Thursday just before Market open we should start running from that consolidation all the way up to 1965 by 3:35 pm and then close around 1957.
Fri 3/4 - We should open at 1965 and then close at 1980.
Tues. 3/8 New Moon -
ON 3/13 2:35 am we should hit the New Moon + 4 Low around 1939. From this low we should rocket off. By this roadmap you want to be LONG HERE!!!!!
3/28 - We should be at or above the 2063 target. Now the question is will we actually go higher than this???? I don't want us to because it would break my theory....but based on my current read of the Price / Time GCalc we will go higher.
alx13
Thank you for your thoughts.

We broke 1941 SPX. My targets for this bounce at 1945 and 1950. I doubt we will break back above the 1971 high, but if we do that would be very bullish.
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