SPX - Big Picture Update

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
390 3 8
(1) There is a wedge since Mar09 (red). Breaking below the red line in weekly is a big deal.
(2) There is a more recent wedge formed since Nov14 exhibiting ever lower realised volatility .
(3) It is unlikely that SPX             will carry on climbing in the red wedge from here.
(4) I see the 19th of June as the last date around which a resilience top could be achieved.

A – The upside is limited locally (2%) and probably capped at 7% until year end.
B – It is a question of weeks before SP500             starts a 9/13% correction.
C – As can be seen from the chart, the next 12 months shall be volatile/Flat between 1880 and 2260

If I am correct, there is great trading ahead.

Two adverse scenarios:
I - Ballistic to 2350 into Dec15 without volatility at all –Unlikely.
II - Flat/no volatility to 2250 into Nov15 – Unlikely but more realistic.
just closed below the redline on the weekly... big deal?
YaKa scott_minnesota
Still supported by an inch..
it will fall for sure at some point soon.
the question is whether it spikes before.
It is random, and there is no 1% precision here.
+1 Reply
i think the sp will go back 1795 ,,, like you say in july or august but maybe i can see it end of june if we can see sell off next twee weeks
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