BC

The S&P 500 Is Topping

BC  
FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
482 5 8
The SPX             is exhibiting exceedingly rare coincident indicators, occurring only twice in US stock market history going back to the 1920s, including:

A Dow Theory sell signal.

A Hindenburg Omen.

A log-periodic, super-exponential blowoff that began in 2012 and resolved in 2014.

A Coppock Guide/Curve "Killer Wave" (see Jim Stack of Investech).

Weekly and monthly Tom DeMark ( TD             ) sell signals.

A larger-degree, cyclical Elliott Wave (projection) from the 2009 low.

Record margin debt as a share of GDP.

A record high for non-financial corporate debt as a share of GDP.

A record high for equity market capitalization as a share of GDP, i.e., the "Buffett Indicator".

A monthly MACD cross.

A monthly RSI cross down below 70.

The index reaching 20% or more above the long-term cyclical moving average .

Oh, yes. When were the two previous times all of these indicators coincided as is occurring today . . . ?

1929 and 2007.

But it's "different this time" with QEternity, ZIRP, NIRP, "forward giddiness", and central banks the world over willing, able, and prepared to panic at a moment's notice and expand trillions of dollars' worth of fiat digital debt-money credits for bank reserves to prop up equity indices to avoid a bear market and the risk of a debt-deflationary implosion larger than 2008-10.

Financial asset bubbles are now a de facto monetary policy tool and the equity market a kind of rentier-socialist public utility that cannot be permitted to lose more than 7-10% of its value that persists, let alone be allowed to crash 35-50%+.

It is often said that they don't ring a bell at a market top. Well, to my ears, the sound of the death-knell tolling of the bull market is deafening.

"And so it goes . . . "

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claydoctor
a year ago
The top was May 18th. :)
Reply
And where's the short entry?
Reply
claydoctor IvanLabrie
a year ago
I short the S&P playing the vxx and vxx options (risky business). The time to get short S&P was may 18th. Nice charts and indicator descriptions here, great job!
Reply
YaKa PRO
a year ago
well done.
+1 Reply
caputo.philip
a year ago
Outstanding research! Great work!
+1 Reply
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