UPDATE: S&P 500 is reacting to the ECB's TLTRO news

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
The ECB made a clear statement that the economy is in the depths of despair (not really) and a new round of QE is necessary.
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$3400 price target...I don't think the analysis is correct. We already had a blow off top with a throw over event completing wave 5.

+1 Reply
Hi @gvoommen, you could be correct. I’m not a pure EW trader, I use it in conjuncion with the leading fundamental indicators I follow which are all still in expansion albeit growing at a slower pace. My count is based upon this information.
I bit confused on the catalyst to get us past $3000 this year.

The Fed is backed into a corner. If they cut rates now, they are signaling that Trump's economy is weak. The rest of the world is already looking like it's about to enter a recession. That will spill over and impact earnings/PE expansion, etc.

How to imagine that we don't tip over into a recession sometime in 2020.

Doesnt it seem more likely that we are headed to $1500 vs. beyond $3000 long-term?

+1 Reply
Rob.Reynolds Akhokhar86
Hi @Akhokhar86,

If you have the opportunity to read George Soros book "The Alchemy of Finance" I think it will greatly develop your game, it certainly did for me.

On a transitory basis your view would be correct, however, lower rates have facilitated corporate buybacks that have totaled $4trn since 2009 lows (equal to the Feds balance sheet). That is likely to be a driver.

The data is still suggesting we are expanding and should do so over the coming 6-12 months. $3,000 might be a stretch but I can see many circumstances in which the markets reach new highs.

Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
Akhokhar86 Rob.Reynolds
@Rob.Reynolds, Thanks, def checking it out.

I think buybacks will be a risk if near future, but that's personal speculation. A lot of political talk around it.
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