S&P 500 bulls ignoring all risks yet again; targeting 2202
The current bullish trend change is already three days old and we are still half a day away from Apple shocking the world with some disappointing lame new iPhone models, which will further set in stone their demise and could lead to a kiss of death of the MACD histogram with the zero line on the daily S&P 500.
But who knows, maybe Apple beats expectations. In that case we are going to see a rally which I deem to be larger than the immediate bearish reaction to a lousy Apple news event which most analysts expect to happen anyway and should be already priced in.
The Nasdaq Composite made a new all-time high on Tuesday, September 6, 2016 based on disappointing US economic data which point to a incoming US recession and therefore lowered the chance of a FED rate hike in September, which is bullish for the central bank stimulus addicted stock market. Therefore the S&P 500 is now more likely in a catch-up mode to go higher following this new rise of the Nasdaq Composite.
Current price: 2185
Entry: 2185-2176
Stop loss: 2175
Target: 2202
Reward to 2202 from 2185 is 17 points
Risk to 2175 from 2185 is 10 points
P.S. The indicator on the chart is this the MACD with color highlights:
But who knows, maybe Apple beats expectations. In that case we are going to see a rally which I deem to be larger than the immediate bearish reaction to a lousy Apple news event which most analysts expect to happen anyway and should be already priced in.
The Nasdaq Composite made a new all-time high on Tuesday, September 6, 2016 based on disappointing US economic data which point to a incoming US recession and therefore lowered the chance of a FED rate hike in September, which is bullish for the central bank stimulus addicted stock market. Therefore the S&P 500 is now more likely in a catch-up mode to go higher following this new rise of the Nasdaq Composite.
Current price: 2185
Entry: 2185-2176
Stop loss: 2175
Target: 2202
Reward to 2202 from 2185 is 17 points
Risk to 2175 from 2185 is 10 points
P.S. The indicator on the chart is this the MACD with color highlights:
Comment:
Update: 2 days later:
I'm glad I posted this warning in my last update. The bearish kiss of death on the MACD histogram which I even pointed out as risk when I first published this chart has now played out. Meaning the bears are clearly in control and can drive the S&P 500 much lower in the next weeks:
Please take a look at my weekly chart of how bearish I was until this pre-ECB-Draghi-speak fake-out rally happened:
I'm glad I posted this warning in my last update. The bearish kiss of death on the MACD histogram which I even pointed out as risk when I first published this chart has now played out. Meaning the bears are clearly in control and can drive the S&P 500 much lower in the next weeks:
Please take a look at my weekly chart of how bearish I was until this pre-ECB-Draghi-speak fake-out rally happened:
My idea was we get a decline on Wednesday after the Apple event and then stabilize today and Friday. Instead the market rallied into Thursday's ECB event and now this decline I was expecting with the Apple news day has shifted into the future and we now decline from a much higher level, meaning this clean up will take up much more time than a single day.
Maybe we get the rally starting next Monday-Wednesday. Until then I see some pullback down to maybe 2167-2170 points before we get to 2200. I am not going to post a new bearish chart, because higher time-frames are increasingly bullish, only the short-term looks very weak, with the MACD histogram on the daily as of now after the ECB event looking like a super bearish kiss of death.
Here is my rough idea for the next days: