ChartArt
Long

S&P 500 bulls ignoring all risks yet again; targeting 2202

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
310 3 6
2 months ago
The current bullish trend change is already three days old and we are still half a day away from Apple             shocking the world with some disappointing lame new iPhone models, which will further set in stone their demise and could lead to a kiss of death of the MACD histogram with the zero line on the daily S&P 500             .

But who knows, maybe Apple             beats expectations. In that case we are going to see a rally which I deem to be larger than the immediate bearish reaction to a lousy Apple             news event which most analysts expect to happen anyway and should be already priced in.

The Nasdaq Composite             made a new all-time high on Tuesday, September 6, 2016 based on disappointing US economic data which point to a incoming US recession and therefore lowered the chance of a FED rate hike in September, which is bullish for the central bank stimulus addicted stock market . Therefore the S&P 500             is now more likely in a catch-up mode to go higher following this new rise of the Nasdaq Composite             .

Current price: 2185
Entry: 2185-2176
Stop loss: 2175
Target: 2202

Reward to 2202 from 2185 is 17 points
Risk to 2175 from 2185 is 10 points


P.S. The indicator on the chart is this the MACD with color highlights:
MACD Color Trawler (by ChartArt)

2 months ago
Comment: Shit happens. When I posted this chart I hadn't checked the economic calendar. The ECB ruined my outlook.

My idea was we get a decline on Wednesday after the Apple event and then stabilize today and Friday. Instead the market rallied into Thursday's ECB event and now this decline I was expecting with the Apple news day has shifted into the future and we now decline from a much higher level, meaning this clean up will take up much more time than a single day.

Maybe we get the rally starting next Monday-Wednesday. Until then I see some pullback down to maybe 2167-2170 points before we get to 2200. I am not going to post a new bearish chart, because higher time-frames are increasingly bullish, only the short-term looks very weak, with the MACD histogram on the daily as of now after the ECB event looking like a super bearish kiss of death.

Here is my rough idea for the next days:

snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: Update: 2 days later:

I'm glad I posted this warning in my last update. The bearish kiss of death on the MACD histogram which I even pointed out as risk when I first published this chart has now played out. Meaning the bears are clearly in control and can drive the S&P 500 much lower in the next weeks:

snapshot


Please take a look at my weekly chart of how bearish I was until this pre-ECB-Draghi-speak fake-out rally happened:

Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rally
coondawg71 PRO
2 months ago
I have exactly the same projection still, 2200.
Reply
coondawg71 PRO
2 months ago
I think that the easy money policies will stay in place, hence Mario's commentary today. So more easy money will prevent there ever being a lid on equity markets. Don't fight the Fed.
Reply
coondawg71 PRO
2 months ago
"Somebody" keeps buying the the Supply as it sells off...so no correction will take place, hence our flat markets since June. Current levels will serve as a Baseline for future price projections of the next 1, 2, 3 years. It will be a mere spec on the graph.
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