except for the recent overthrow above the line, index prices have really only returned to the longer term trend line. yes, a bear market correction may be due since this is the longest bull in history, but in the day of managed markets, this could continue until it doesnt.
Very nice. I like your comment. The question is, can long-term valuations hold up if and when rates change, and how can (renters, home buyers, investors, etc) afford hyper-inflation of financial assets of the long term? Presumably (rates, inflation, wages) will make strange adjustments if the social engineering of financial markets continues for the long term, but how will that occur?
My own results from a year or so (older version of my graph on TradingView somewhere) : SP500 1926-2020 semi-log trend = 10^(0.792392+2.89587*10^(-2)*(year - 1926.25)) price revolution* SP500 1872-1926 semi-log trend = 10^(0.784617+1.40925*10^(-4)*(year - 1871.08)) price equilibrium* *David Fischer 1996 "The Great Wave, Price revolutions and the rhythm of history" At present, we are 1.3 * 83 year semi-log trend, while 10year T-bill rates are still very low. In ~Dec2018 it was ~0.8 * 83 year semi-log trend. But (above, below) levels can endure for ~10-20 years.
Just today from ~May2019 or ~Mar2021 to ~Nov2021 : SP500 06Jan020-06Dec2021 Fibbonacci(0.0) : semilog trend = 10^(3.5018 + 0.0940601*(year - 2020.02)) effective rate ~= ((10 power semiLog_slope) -1) : 24%
My own results from a year or so (older version of my graph on TradingView somewhere) :
SP500 1926-2020 semi-log trend = 10^(0.792392+2.89587*10^(-2)*(year - 1926.25)) price revolution*
SP500 1872-1926 semi-log trend = 10^(0.784617+1.40925*10^(-4)*(year - 1871.08)) price equilibrium*
*David Fischer 1996 "The Great Wave, Price revolutions and the rhythm of history"
At present, we are 1.3 * 83 year semi-log trend, while 10year T-bill rates are still very low. In ~Dec2018 it was ~0.8 * 83 year semi-log trend. But (above, below) levels can endure for ~10-20 years.
Just today from ~May2019 or ~Mar2021 to ~Nov2021 :
SP500 06Jan020-06Dec2021 Fibbonacci(0.0) :
semilog trend = 10^(3.5018 + 0.0940601*(year - 2020.02))
effective rate ~= ((10 power semiLog_slope) -1) : 24%