1966 is key pivot: - As long as closes occur above 1966, the bull structure is intact. - The next 4% upward are challenging but after it could follow the path described in the chart. - 2160 could be last top in Oct15. - Conversely on closes below 1966 > watch out.
Note: - In this projection, the year end close would occur at 2070 – A flat year reflecting balanced pressures this year. - Strong assumption: The black bold line shall not be breached going forward.
Comments
YaKa
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CANCEL THAT CALL - WE ARE BELOW 1966 - I think 1730 in NOV15
IvanLabrie
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Great, similar view.
elp
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Looking at the highs of years 2000, 2007 and now may 2015, they were all seperated by 7.5 years. Looking at bottoms of years 2003, 2009 and now august 2015, they were all seperated by 77 months. Could be a coincidence and I am wrong? But if the the August lows are respected, I am going to keep an open mind.
YaKa
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Let me add something.
if the current bottom is a lasting one for 1 year or more: it will have to be revisited/confirmed...
If we do a new top in the next 8weeks in SPX, then it is more likely "double" top...
so the path here is imporant
AshleyJTrader
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That is an impressive finding. Great work.
elp
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I could be 100% wrong. If Monday was a bottoming area, or one more low? I believe primary 5 could take the spx higher into the end of 2016 where the spx would finally enter a bear market.
look4edge
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in w4 of your count you have identical A=C - abc terminals with extened c ... not very likely
for me is all the X=ABC wave over
elp
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You are probably correct. I am not a great EW person, so I just look at the weekly picture. My thoughts, C = 1.5 of A where all of 2015 was a correction into a B.
elp
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Another long term count I have been looking at. If year 1987 was the start of a wave 5 extension of SC3, the crash of 1987 was very sharp, alternation would imply cycle 4 would be long and dragged out. C4 could have ended at 2009 lows and now we have seen the end of SC3 at 2134.70 spx & 2134 ES. This would imply if this count is correct, then price could correct all the way back down to year 2000 and 2009 lows for SC4? Or being more extreme, as per EW, when a wave extends it can correct all the way back to the start of its extension. Which would be year 1987 lows? I could am most likely 100% wrong with this count and it's just a back burner count.
Another count would have SC3 ending at year 2007 highs and SC$ was at 2009 lows? The rally off 2009 lows is C1 of SC5 which could have ended or one more wave up? All possabilities and will kee an open mind. I agree your count has a higher possibility than the counts I have. TY for the reply!
look4edge
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have found complelling count supporting your idea and that weekly hammer...
BUT, in weekly:
- slow cci is against you, now at zero
- ema13/ema34 cross occured
- AO dived below zero after clear dvg
this technical picture indicated cliff in 2000, 2007 ,see horizontal lines
so levels at weekly ema34 touch around 2050 most probable - derived from 2001/2008