cwatson96
Long

Prepare for the Recession

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
The business cycle has become a simple fact of economic life. This is so for two reasons: 1) human psychology and 2) central bank interference in the global economy. The Federal Reserve's and European Central Bank's responses to the 2008 financial crisis created asset bubbles in the West, and failed to resolve the solvency problems of the European Union. Meanwhile, China's central planners created an artificial oversupply of housing that has contributed to a decline in housing prices. This will surely create problems for the Chinese economy at large. Oil             prices are in the first stage of a decline due to oversupply, the largest in nearly a century. A decline in oil             prices and an asset bubble in mortgage derivatives precipitated the 2008 decline of the global economy. Based on my analysis, the time has come for another correction.
bassman5000
2 years ago
The price of oil almost doubled for half of 2008 as the S&P 500 started it's downturn in 2008. Where do you see the bubble in this recession?
Reply
BobbyBlueShoes bassman5000
2 years ago
US corporate bonds, since 2008 for record share buy-backs.
USD. Not an asset as such but certainly one of the top 5 crowded trades 2015.
Sovereign bonds, bonds, bonds, everywhere.
JP equities.
CH equities.
EU equities.
US equities , less than EU and Japan.
Commodities have already been unwinding for months.
And possibly the most underrated of all, trust in the central bankers. QE and ZIRP is not the market saviours the mainstream media make it out to be. Central bankers have been failing (Swiss) and many more will still. Let's call it a trust bubble.
Reply
Patladj.
2 years ago
EURUSD - $1.70. Oil - $150, Silver - 80. S&P5000 - 3000.
Next cycle of inflation kicked in on 19th of March 2015.
The fear of deflation has mad a lower high on December 2014.

Sell USD. Inflation ahead - AGAIN.
Reply
SaradisVagalatis Patladj.
2 years ago
Patladj,

Gold.....?.....10000?
Reply
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