My last post about the S&P 500 imminent crash (3600-2200) was deleted by Trading View because I had a reference to my Twitter account (where I spend most of my time).
Anywho, sharing a variation of price movement that I think will play out. Either way, all my SPX charts suggest a much lower market in the months ahead.
Bears have capitulated and I'm seeing people say we are in a "New Bull Market" after a +10-year expansion. Some suggest SPX can hit 4000 before any pullback. I monitor price action, if it suggests it, I go with it, not before. Right now it looks like the market topped in September or is very close to in Q4 2020.
I have a high conviction that we break March lows in the next couple of months to 1 year. Remember, we were in a recession before the pandemic.
For long-term investors with a long time horizon, the next 2-3 years will represent the best time to accumulate for big gains over the next decade (always keep that in mind).
For traders, we have a Big Short situation unfolding. Timing is important.
SPX Levels: 3400 is the 50-day-MA, if broken, I will be heavy in UVXY Calls / SPY Puts.
I will remain bullish until that level breaks. If we never break it and head higher, guess what? I'm long, so should you. Traders are nimble.
I care not about predictions. I only care about being on the right side of the trade.
Cheers
Trade active
⋅
If a top is in, the plunge starting today has to be faster/steeper than any drop the past 2 months (i.e. 3200 in like 5 trading days).
We prepared for this.
Keep in mind:
-Stimulus bill not likely before election -COVID cases are surging around the world -Bankruptcies/debt defaults are surging
Most of the analysts on Wall Street are thinking we are going higher. Don't be fooled. Listen to price action.
I share more updates on Twitter (I don't really like Trading View for this).
Trade active
⋅
Just a note: I work for a 6B multi-family office. I work with the Director of Research. I look at every deal. We look at public and private markets (venture capital, private equity, distressed real estate, etc.).
I mention this because I get to speak with the managers that move markets. I see what's going on underneath the hood. Things most have no idea about. I'm lucky, but it's a testament to who I am. I'm only here to help share what I know with hopes that you take care of yourself/your family/the world (I mean that).
Chart Update: Not sure why I can't post an updated chart here, lot has changed since I was active here.
SPX: closing below 3400 was ominous. We should see an acceleration lower from here. My updated chart is on my Twitter page. We may not see the ATH again in 2020. Either way, you should be in cash or short this market (sell into rallies).
For long-term buys, wait for cheaper prices. They are coming.
Cheers
Trade active
⋅
My Twitter link is in my bio (it's also my username). Most of my updates will be there.
Welcome to the "Big Short 3.0"
Hopefully, you are learning more than you made so far.
My hope is to teach people how to fish (to make consistent gains for years to come).
Comment
⋅
Here's what I posted on my Twitter:
SPX: Price is following in lockstep to my predicted path.
I sold UPRO calls this morning. Sitting overweight with cash and long UVXY.
I don't care about political outcomes. Everyone is overcomplicating this market.
The "real" data is clear. We are in a recession.
#BigShort
(note the chart above was changed weeks ago), the overall path is the same. No one can predict what we will see this week.
A "Black Swan" event is only "Black Swan" if it is not predicted by a thousand authors on TradingView.
The scenario on the chart has been predicted over and over again for a long time, so the reality will probably be different.
So far I have predicted Black Swans perfectly. I might write a book on it someday.
Take note at the last time I posted an idea on Trading View before these past 2. I don't follow authors here. I post when I expect a big move coming. My record speaks for itself.
Keep in mind what I said at the very end of this post.
I'm only here to help a few people that might take heed.
This will play out.
ReallyMe
⋅
@VisionCodeX, Yeah, all right. I didn't mean to question your abilities, I just wanted to point out that a "Black Swan" by definition describes an event that 1.comes as a surprise, 2.has a great impact and 3.is often unreasonably rationalized in retrospect. One could conclude from this that if someone can correctly predict a "Black Swan" and even several times (like you, for example), then it is not a "Black Swan" at all -- by definition it cannot be, because there is no surprise. I hope you see what I mean.
What I'm saying is no different than the movie "Big Short" where the housing crisis was only truly understood by a few who profited off of the "Black Swan" (Wall Street wasn't prepared).
I called for a Black Swan in Jan of 2020. I said COVID would cause a recession and Wall Street was ignoring the signs. Months later Sequoia Capital wrote a paper called " Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020"
ReallyMe
⋅
@VisionCodeX, Fair enough. I think the movies are always a little over the top. Wall Street was not prepared, there is hardly anything like that. Main Street is never prepared, Wall Street always is. ;-)
This is extremely straightforward and I have similar levels on my own chart, but reading this right now shows how close it really is to teetering over the cliff. Thanks.
VisionCodeX
⋅
@Voltref, Falling off the cliff today....interesting times. Cheers.
The scenario on the chart has been predicted over and over again for a long time, so the reality will probably be different.