There is a worrying development in SP500 and crypto. While crypto is forming a triangle that can preceed a further sell-off the US stock market can also follow the suit by finishing the triangle much earlier (red one) that I thought initially (blue one).
I know you dutifully ignore fundamentals and stick rigidly to following the waves. But your new scenario does fit, I think, with the likely scenario that Russia captures Kiev in the next few days. On doing so, all risk assets are likely to see a sharp move down. Rightly or wrongly, I still think crypto trades like a risk asset rather than a flight to safety such as gold
Fomenka
⋅
@YouCannotBeSerious, or the blow can come from somewhere else. Either Russia technically defaults (being unable to use its dollar reserves to pay obligations) or there is a domino effect somethere else. If that causes credit crunch gold can go down too (my wishfull thinking).
Fomenka
⋅
@YouCannotBeSerious, and adding to what I said. Disregarding whether my red or blue scenario comes true - I think the next move down will be triggered by economic fallout, not by geopolitics. Russian-Ukrainian conflict is priced in, I think. Whatever the outcome - it will increase certainty which is bullish. The domino effect on logistics, corporate profits, effect from skyrocketing oil and wheat is not yet priced in. This is likely to be the cause of the next move.
YouCannotBeSerious
⋅
@DEUS, I am not sure the scenario of Russia parading around central Kiev claiming victory is fully priced in - perhaps - but yes, of course, it is the economic side effects which can still create havoc from here. In any case, what I find particularly interesting is that there is a rare alignment between several of the TradingView commentators I have the most faith in (including you), and all of them are calling for a sharp reversal in crypto snd equities with extraordinary alignment on the view that 4320ish is probably the place to go short the S&P and 4056 is the target. 3 separate commentators have noted this exact price - I don’t think I have ever seen such alignment before. Which probably means it will be wrong! But I am going to put the trade on.