The daily timeframe has yet another short signal here, I've hedged my equities positions with a 1:1 $ESZ2021 short position near the NY closing time. Implications are we get yet another down swing, and a vicious one towards 4161.8 by Oct 25 or sooner, as long as price doesn't cross the 4368.89 level with ease, erasing the decline from the high two days ago.
There's palpable fear in the market, and earnings season around the corner might keep investors up at night...The recent upswing in commodities, as shortages and supply chains woe pop left and right is making people nervous, add to these inflationary woes, the rising yields and rising dollar, and we get a perfect storm. I was expecting sell offs to slow down, since we had a strong buying wave, retracing the last liquidity shock by 75% in the $VIX chart, but the latest daily T@M signal here puts that notion in question. The currency market is making shock waves here, which is an unusual and new development, $USDJPY breaking out and rallying very strongly, could be followed up by deleveraging. I'm being cautious and hedging until things are clear again. My individual stock positions have solid charts and a fundamental back drop, so, it isn't worth it to sell them in this case.
Let's see if bears get follow through here and the signal target is reached in time.
Best of luck,
Ivan.
There's palpable fear in the market, and earnings season around the corner might keep investors up at night...The recent upswing in commodities, as shortages and supply chains woe pop left and right is making people nervous, add to these inflationary woes, the rising yields and rising dollar, and we get a perfect storm. I was expecting sell offs to slow down, since we had a strong buying wave, retracing the last liquidity shock by 75% in the $VIX chart, but the latest daily T@M signal here puts that notion in question. The currency market is making shock waves here, which is an unusual and new development, $USDJPY breaking out and rallying very strongly, could be followed up by deleveraging. I'm being cautious and hedging until things are clear again. My individual stock positions have solid charts and a fundamental back drop, so, it isn't worth it to sell them in this case.
Let's see if bears get follow through here and the signal target is reached in time.
Best of luck,
Ivan.
Trade closed manually:
I got out of the hedge in some loss, seems like stocks are holding support, the short isn't valid in the $SPY chart as well, I had overlooked this. I went long bonds as per my tweet, but banked that for a quick gain, covers half the loss in the hedge using $ESZ2021 shorts.
Comment:
Now bullish here, can flash a weekly uptrend soon:
