finitemonk

Well Enough Defined Channel

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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The recent "China" drop is almost exactly the same as the 2011 correction, which suggests they are related, as possibly wave 2 & 4 (?) ...

If so, then there should be some relationship between this current wave and the waves preceding the 2011 drop. (That depends on the interpretation of those, of course). It is possible then that there is quite a lot more bullish action to come. (A high of 2268, anyone??)

More immediately: reasonable to expect some kind of upward response to the other side of this channel, possibly as it hits the 100MA on the daily, currently around 2033, and sitting in my consideration at the moment is a) this current wave down appears corrective and b) just toying with idea it's not a wave (iv) as previously assumed (it seems to have come a bit too far down, currently hanging around the 0.618 retrace of the previous wave) but a wave ii to a much, much larger ( iii ) ... although technically it can still be (iv), maybe what I call a 'deep' four, prior to a major reversal.

Another supportive aspect to a reasonable move up is the NZDJPY , which looks as though it's near completing a 4th wave (a good long set up btw). If a carry trade were to reside among common currencies that may be where ( CB IRs: 2.75% vs 0.1% ) .. and the structure of the NZDJPY shows recent high correlation to the S&P .

Not suggesting placement of the circled 'c' is of any significance, I've just parked it up there 'somewhere'.

i think the most likely thing is this current corrective wave will complete into the close of the week.

2040.6, just about clinging on, any break of 2022 would be a major bearish indication.
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