Risk of exhaustion ahead of the next Fed rate hike meeting

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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One month ago I outlined the potential scenario of a rally nearing the next Fed meeting in March 2016. This rally has emerged and now the risk of the reversal is growing: Reasons:

The "S&P 500":
  • closed right below 2,000 points and not above it at 1,999.91 points
  • is at the top of the channel of both the last 50 and 100 days
  • is very near the EMA 200
  • is right at the monthly R1 resistance
  • the daily candle is a doji candle
  • the index rallied for three straight weeks, which increases the chance of a trend change
  • and the RSI has a high value of 64

U.S. stocks closed higher for the fourth straight day Friday as crude oil             prices climbed and official data showed jobs growth in February was stronger than economists’ expected. The S&P 500             gained 6.48 points, or 0.3%, to 1,999.91. The Dow industrials             rose 62.66 points, or 0.4%, to 17,006.77, while the Nasdaq Composite             gained 9.6 points, or 0.2%, to 4,717.02. All three indexes have logged three straight weekly gains.
And in addition the week also closed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement:

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