moorekapital

SPX500: 3 PUSHES DOWN = BULL FLAG

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
392 17 17
Trading range mode activated
Buy Climax
'TL' 'BO'
First time 3 daily bars open and close below 20EMA=EMA gap = A final minor leg up to testing 'BX'

The 'BOL' is marked by a bull flag , largely an ending diagonal on 1H timeframe.
Alternatively, a move down to April7 Low of 2033 would complete the story of a perfect Double Bottom prior to the rally to testing 'BX'

1H ENDING DIAGONAL
snapshot



Definitions
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
UTL=UpTrendline = A line from the Lowest Low, upward and to the highest minor low point preceding the Highest High so that the line does not pass through prices in between
these two points.
DTL=DownTrendline = A line from the highest high point downward to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low so that the line does not pass through prices in between these two high points.
SX/BX =Sell Climax/Buy Climax
BO=Breakout
BOL=Breakout limit (Determined when price seize to make a new high/low in 5 bars since the last high/low following the initial rally/selloff after TL BO)
LH MTR = Lower High Major Trend Reversal = Leg up following the 'BOL' gets close to 'BX'
HH MTR=Higher High Major Trend Reversal = Leg up following the 'BOL' exceeds 'BX'
LLMTR = Lower Low Major Trend Reversal = Leg down following the 'BOL' exceeds 'SX'
HL MTR= Higher Low Major Trend Reversal =Legdown following the 'BOL' only gets close to 'SX'
TR = Trading Range (Tradable legs implied)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The Logic
1. Trend trading until the weight of evidence tells of the absence of the trend.
2. And to trade the potential legs within the trading range, when price finally breaks the trendline , and enters into a tradable trading range, until there's a trading range breakout- continuation or reversal.






Comment: An inch to Target 2 ^_^
Comment: I did a new chart, as we near my BX ;)
SPX500: DT MTR OR A SUCCESSFUL NEW ALL-TIME HIGH...?
SPX500 up = USDJPY up ^_^
USDJPY: HOW I SEE UJ
Reply
Nice idea and well thought out test zones
+1 Reply
moorekapital Quantum_Maryland_Capital
Thanks a lot for kind words
Reply
Take a peek at the second chart which shows price behavior during the week(s) prior to OPEX which is May 20th. Based upon the past, we could easily see gains of 40 to 50 points off of 1940 placing us in the higher bands of resistance. https://northmantrader.com/2016/05/07/the-golden-key/
+1 Reply
moorekapital Quantum_Maryland_Capital
Beautiful link, that one ! ^_^
Reply
very professional analysis, thank you.

from my view, we could well go into the 5th wave (4 (or already 5) since Feb14th) from here on. given the bad macro news (eg pmis sink a on a global scale, sinking corporate earnings) of the last weeks the inherent strength of the market seems remarkable, that is a good base for further performance. however, a dovish fed seems helpful. 5th wave is good for a 140 pts move.

this is for balanced investors who need liquid instruments and with a 3mths timeline (till after brexit referendum)

buy duration for the case equities fail.
keep the duration at about 10 via tya / wna overlay,
be long 20% usd/jpy (like shown below) via forwards overlay not options market is far too long JPY, next BoJ move is only delayed not canceled they are increasingly forced to buy,
be long us high yield via etf
prefer small to midcap equity indices to go long equity, eg russell or mdax
+2 Reply
I appreciate these beautiful words!
Reply
is this an automated system you use? just interested as you refer in your comments " Trading range Mode Activated" thanks. nice work again though!!
+1 Reply
moorekapital ZenTrader17
No, ZenTrader17. It's just a way of describing the cycle of market or the stage in which I see any chart. I try to reduce my chart analysis to a binary decision- TRENDING or TRADING RANGE phase
Reply
ZenTrader17 moorekapital
great ! thanks for the explanation
+1 Reply
moorekapital ZenTrader17
Nice one!
Reply
ZenTrader17 moorekapital
hi again. call it intuition or what ever but have the feeling that we will now trade in a channel. good to take short trade now. target BOL line as per your chart. possible up leg up again. before we can start to see a significant downturn.
what say you?
+1 Reply
moorekapital ZenTrader17
This is my observation over a number of charts: Very strong legs quite often are not followed by strong selloffs. Price could go sideways for at least a few bars prior. But take it w/ grain of salt ^_^ . Tis all probability talks. That said, in point number 5 to my other chart, I said : "5. The leg up(green) from the DB= very stong rally = High odds are that PBs could be bought immediately. " But note this also, (I'm wrong 70% of the time ^_^ )
SPX500: DT MTR OR A SUCCESSFUL NEW ALL-TIME HIGH...?
Reply
ZenTrader17 moorekapital
we are all wrong most of the time Moore . admitting that and moving forward is what a lot of traders have problems with. when I go into a trade I expect to loose. if I win I thank the Universe. bit quaky but ..that's just me. if I was mentally well balanced I would not be trading jajajaja. cheers.
+1 Reply
moorekapital ZenTrader17
Hahahahaha Thats funny how you put it. But you nailed it. Tis a probability business. Unfortunatley I didnt know this from start, and would try harder, each time to win, only to be frustrated again and agan. Accepting the loss really clears your head, and keeps you in good mindset for the next trade, which 'who knows', might have a better odds of paying well.
Reply
moorekapital ZenTrader17
Never fight a strong leg!!!! 
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moorekapital moorekapital
snapshot
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