I just think the 1998 currency crisis is very similar to today's set up. The 1st drop took less time, this time, because we have computer trading, quick moves. The interlude between drop 1 and 2, not sure. Again may be less time, vix spike, big events, big actions of country's trying top stabilze with much bigger problems this time. Next drop may exceed first, but ultimate drop wind up at 20% possible from May 18th high. So down 10%, up 4 to 5 %, although could go a bit higher before larger drop 2, maybe 15%. Oil up from here for a while supports oil sector stocks, waiting for that huge OIL buy signal. But, the rest of sectors are a mess still, and all the big money go long stocks talk will not change the facts. No FED moves will help lower dollar strength, but Yuan, Euro, Yen will resist and wants theirs lower too. The currency war will continue until some event makes them stop, have no idea what though. HOWEVER, if the FED is stupid enough to raise rates, dollar stronger, oil back down, oil sector crashes, especially with the amount of buying that would have taken place - and is taking place now - and market does crash, world wide recession. If that happens, they are true idiots.
Comments
IvanLabrie
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claydoctor
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Ivan, hope this trade goes well for you.
IvanLabrie
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Thanks!
Have a few potential home runs running.
Great opportunities arising.
Best of luck for you too :)
claydoctor
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Watch the CL1! hit the previous support now resistance, if it breaks thru, it is off to the races, and not actually sure short term how it will effect currency pairs, we are in transiltion time, be careful.