SPX is trying to get a minor new high before it gets dispatched to below 1500. I'm not kidding at all when I call that target.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasuries will hit 6%, while the Euro will hit 0.8.
Why am I assuming those will happen at the same time? Because they are part of the same thing! The Dollar, Treasuries and Stocks are part of the same story that began 51 years ago when the US abolished the Golden Standard.
Money printing began in 1971. The same year real estate prices picked up. It took almost 10 years for the newly minted dollars to find their way to the Treasury market. A historic downtrend in yields was ignited in 1981. The money then rushed into stocks: the falling yields by themselves caused an upward repricing of stocks, but also allowed businesses to finance their growth like never before. This alone was enough to fuel stock market growth for 40+ years.
Unfortunately, the story of fiat (fake) money is coming to an end. Everything will get real, and over the next 10-20 years all growth in valuations (judging by P/E multiples) will be undone to the levels seen around 1980..1985 (inflation adjusted). The first wave (wave A) of this adjustment is right around the corner. Meet H2'22 in all its glory.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasuries will hit 6%, while the Euro will hit 0.8.
Why am I assuming those will happen at the same time? Because they are part of the same thing! The Dollar, Treasuries and Stocks are part of the same story that began 51 years ago when the US abolished the Golden Standard.
Money printing began in 1971. The same year real estate prices picked up. It took almost 10 years for the newly minted dollars to find their way to the Treasury market. A historic downtrend in yields was ignited in 1981. The money then rushed into stocks: the falling yields by themselves caused an upward repricing of stocks, but also allowed businesses to finance their growth like never before. This alone was enough to fuel stock market growth for 40+ years.
Unfortunately, the story of fiat (fake) money is coming to an end. Everything will get real, and over the next 10-20 years all growth in valuations (judging by P/E multiples) will be undone to the levels seen around 1980..1985 (inflation adjusted). The first wave (wave A) of this adjustment is right around the corner. Meet H2'22 in all its glory.
