just a thought, no idea if it'll end up happening projecting the run from 95-00 to where we are today when we broke above the centre dotted line in the channel
Nice work, and you are in the camp of many people who have plotted variations of similar long-term trends. My own newbie attempt from almost a year ago is a semi-log detrended Fibonacci of the SP500 index, 1872-2020, in two line segments : 1872-1926, and 1926-2020 (DJIA and proxy for pre-SP500 years). Three observations are :
1) The semi-log detrended SP500 usually stays "somewhat constant" for "major periods" of ~10 or ~20 years, but NOT periods of intermediate duration. Note that the detrended SP500 for these "10-or-20 year periods" is typically in the range 0.382 < Fibonacci(semi-log detrended SP500) < 1.7. (?I didn't check for a better upper level, but it is certainly between 1.382 and 2.000). The "somewhat constant" level is close to Fibonacci= 1.0 less than half of the 1872-2020 timespan.
2) The key exception to the "somewhat constant 10-or-20 year periods" are the ~10 year "bubble-crash-shake-dive" periods ~1926-1937 and ~1995-2008. No other iterpretations of "bubble-crash-shake-dive" come anywhere close to those two within that 1872-2020 timeframe, and are very small in comparison.
2) Withing the "somewhat constant 10-or-20 year periods", "rolling-up-and-down periods" (either spiky or not) occur with ~2-4 year periods. Fibonacci variations of ~0.4 or within these "rolling-up-and-down periods" with time periods of ~2-4 years.
Surprisingly, on the 1872-2020 detrended graph, the 2014-to-current period doesn't stand out at all. Also, from my observations above, while your SP500 is well above your mid-trend-line, it could stay that way for 10-20 years. Or not.
1) The semi-log detrended SP500 usually stays "somewhat constant" for "major periods" of ~10 or ~20 years, but NOT periods of intermediate duration. Note that the detrended SP500 for these "10-or-20 year periods" is typically in the range 0.382 < Fibonacci(semi-log detrended SP500) < 1.7. (?I didn't check for a better upper level, but it is certainly between 1.382 and 2.000). The "somewhat constant" level is close to Fibonacci= 1.0 less than half of the 1872-2020 timespan.
2) The key exception to the "somewhat constant 10-or-20 year periods" are the ~10 year "bubble-crash-shake-dive" periods ~1926-1937 and ~1995-2008. No other iterpretations of "bubble-crash-shake-dive" come anywhere close to those two within that 1872-2020 timeframe, and are very small in comparison.
2) Withing the "somewhat constant 10-or-20 year periods", "rolling-up-and-down periods" (either spiky or not) occur with ~2-4 year periods. Fibonacci variations of ~0.4 or within these "rolling-up-and-down periods" with time periods of ~2-4 years.
Surprisingly, on the 1872-2020 detrended graph, the 2014-to-current period doesn't stand out at all. Also, from my observations above, while your SP500 is well above your mid-trend-line, it could stay that way for 10-20 years. Or not.