The red line on this chart is very important and has been supporting the market from 1990 to 2008.
It took the collapse of Lehman and the ISM confirmation to establish below.
Last monday the market stopped exactly on it and this is probably not a coincidence.
Note: no monthly close below 1960 since Aug14.
I think the range is defined until year end..
2016: Possibility SPX breaks below the red line - I think so although there is enough space between the red line and the green line.
The target down could be the brown line at 1100 in 2018 but it could take many months before it collapses.