And although it wasn’t a perfect ride since the High of APR 20, the month of MAY was the best month for my portfolio. From JAN till APR , I had a positive result of EUR 940, not something to shout from the roof tops, but at least it’s positive. The month of MAY was good for me as I earned EUR 1484 so far. Total result of 8% ROI year to date. My goal is an average score of EUR 500 a month and equals my monthly mortgage payment.
Back to the markets. This is the question that I’m trying to answer: will Yellen break the markets and cause a retest of 2040 and 2025? Or will she talk smoothly so that the media can write: “FED eases rate expectations, global markets rise” or “Yellen slows down, but markets pick up speed” or “FED likely to raise rates in June as economy improves, markets up” or “FED will likely raise rates in June, markets in free fall”… wish I had a little bit of the luck of Marty McFly.
Instead, I have made a scenario analysis, based on Cycles, , and .
S&P500 4h CHART – SCENARIO ANALYSIS
I prefer the blue scenario and will change my strategy if the 2111 breaks to the upside. If the 2111 (High APR 20) breaks to the upside, the blue scenario can not be valid and shorts should be closed. Warning: I’m playing against the Trend as both the Swing Alert is @ LONG as well as the SuperTrend Indicator @ a BUY the DIPS > 2044.
A short with entry @ 2090, stop loss @ 2112 and a take profit @ 2010 (a Lower Low), leads to a risk:reward of 22:80,, which is more than sufficient. A target of 2050 leads to a Risk: Return of 22:40, which is sufficient.
Long Term Cycles DEC 2 HIGH +70 = FEB 10 LOW + 70 = APR 20 HIGH + 35 = MAY 25 + 35 = JUN 28.
Short Term: MAY 19 LOW + 7 calendars days = MAY 26, MAY 19 + 5 trading days = MAY 25/26. MAY 27 = 21 day cycle.