I first want to note that this is a speculative idea, I may be seeing what I want to see instead of what is actually on the chart. But, with that said, there appears to similarities between the 2008 chart and the current chart. Additionally, if you hover over the blue ovals - for lack of a better word - on the chart, they should provide some context.
Both periods have head and shoulder tops, and it appears that approximately 1800 will act as a short term double bottom, which is similar to the 1260 short term double bottom in early 2008.
If the index rejects 1945, then I'm expecting a rough version an inverse head and shoulders to form, but I'm actually not looking for this to happen. Rather, I believe the market will push through the .382 fib level, and hit the .5 retrace before mid March.
From there, if we roughly follow 2008s pattern, the index will hover around the 50% retrace until the 200 MA meanders down to around 196, at which point the market would reject the moving average and proceed to crash over the rest of the year.
The theoretically, but I believe likely, coming 200 MA rejection may happen sooner if the market pushes through the 50% retrace and gets to the hits the golden ratio 61.8% retrace at 1997.7, which is in essence the massive resistance level of 2000. This immense resistance, if the index gets there, should reject barring any radical change in geopolitics.
Finally, if you compare the current SPX500 Index chart to the oil chart posted below, you'll see roughly comparable already formed and head and shoulders with a descending neckline on oil. Of course, oil broke through the neckline that was formed, and dropped very significantly quit quickly.
Again, all of this is speculation, so do not trade by it unless history repeats itself and patterns confirm
bottom line on a 9th grade level....never trust a commie!!!
Rob_Wallace_Williams
⋅
A free economy is a 2 edged sword (laisefare Sp?) but look what a taste of capitalism has done for India and China...I was a tiny functionary in opening the door to China...45 years ago mainland China was what N. Korea is today....knowledge of history and its advances has some use.
zkstonks
⋅
I think what we're seeing with China right now is that whenever you allow for public markets, the truth of what the market should be - or, at least the perception of those who have the most cash think the market should be - wins out. Human's aren't perfect though, and maybe, theoretically, in the long run, the market is correct. However, none of us can know this.
The Chinese government sooner or later has to realize that it cannot have its cake and eat it to; which is to say they cannot have publicly traded exchanges and only have those exchanges go up. Yet, because of the loss of political face for China's Communist Party that'd come about from a market crash (saving face is really important over there, per my former Mandarin teachers from China), they're going to screw the us as a world economy more than the world economy currently is.
Rob_Wallace_Williams
⋅
with humor in tact on your part I respond. we all live step by step and try to catch the tail winds up or down. That being said, I seriously thank you for your contributions to our fraternity. I wish I had been you 50 years ago. Keep up the good work. I do think political change is in the works but will it be soon enough is a hell of a question. The words profit and Wall Street need to quit being profane words. Hard working and industry need to come back in style but will it come soon enough?