Breakout to fail and sudden rise in vol in May..Grexit fears as catalyst along with further oil price fall,now that sentiment has become so bullish with little basis change..Should clear the air.
YaKa
⋅
think so, needs a move below 2070 to start the drilling operations.
YaKa
⋅
All factored in: the perfect trade:
short 30% at 2108
short 20% at 2138
short 50% at 2170 if triggered, half the position when back on 2138.
YaKa
⋅
YaKa
⋅
The good thing for shorts:
Europe had corrected heavily and was subject to a rebound. Most of this rebound probably occured already.. maybe a move down in sync now.
elp
⋅
It looks like a bull trap on different metrics I look at. The monthly center pivot band, 24 periods has only has 6 occurrences where price has traded above it 30 months or more 1950-2015 with the current set up being the 6th. All other times there was at least a 9% correction with 35% being the max, Don´t see why this time will be any different. I think we will see at least a 10% correction with in the next few months. Backtest 2000 and 2007 highs?
YaKa
⋅
I agree on the general idea. but a few months is a hell of a lot of time + this analysis would allow a move to 2250 without disturbing the idea you are conveying.
Agree 10% is coming.
questions:
1) breakout before or not?
2) if breakout, real or fake?
3) if real, 2160 and over or manages to drift higher to 2250?
let's see.
YaKa
⋅
If the close today is the same than yesterday night, shorts are in favour the next day.
elp
⋅
Breaking out to the upside I would want to see it takeout 2138 to believe 2200+ is possible. A false breakout would offer a good short. All world markets have the feeling of a bubble. Dax defies gravity, The Chinese stock market seems to have entered the mom & pop phase, where 2.8 million new investors have entered the markets for the first time. It looks just too right for the markets not to keep going up with central bank intervention. Which has me cautious with longs at current prices.