There are two Bradley timing dates coming up - the first one on January 4th, the second on January 29th. There is also a minor date on January 19th. I am watching for a possible spike upwards to the 2690/2710 area in the first few days of January. If that spike happens and coincides with January 4th (give or take a day or two) I'll assume the Bradley of Jan 4th is a high and Jan 29th expected to be a low.
If the market does go into correction mode (no guarantee that it will) I am looking for a sharp correction - sharp enough to create margin calls that in turn will exacerbate the selling.
There is a confluence of Fib, trend line and date timing in the 2367 area at the end of January. Can the market correct and go that low? Unlikely, but we'll see.
mikeoakster
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I'm not familiar with that methodology, could be interesting - I like astrology but applying it to trading... I would have to look into it.
kunsan
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@mikeoakster, well lets face it Astrology is mostly a load of nonsense. However there are a few people who seem to make sense of it, and the Bradley dates I suppose are the most well known. Taken by themselves I've found them to be unreliable. However just occasionally they are remarkably accurate. Occasionally and too few to be a good source of profit. Where I find them useful is if they coincide with other things. For instance in the SPX at the moment we have a rising upper trendline. I have price targets in the 2690/2710 area (specifically 2714/17). If the price hits the upper trendline, matches a Fib ratio AND that all happens on or around a Bradley date, then I've got high confidence in taking a position. So the Bradley date adds an extra tool to the toolbox.
Interestingly I have a price target of 2367 for wave 4 of the pattern. that matches the rising trendline towards the middle/end of January. Price matches a Fib target and there is also a Bradley date on January 29th. So there are a lot of coincident indicators for a sharp drop to 2367.
Of course this might all be nonsense, but at the moment I'm looking (hoping) for a peak around Jan 4th followed by a surprise large drop (perhaps a flash crash and recovery) touching around 2367 at the end of January.
kunsan
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The market has shown a strong start to the New Year and has now entered the target area of 2690/2710. However as explained above, my 'perfect' target is 2714/17 to be achieved on or around the Bradley date of Jan 4th (give or take a couple days either side). I have Fib targets in that 2714/17 area, Elliot pattern targets and the possible coincidence with the Bradley date.
The question of course is whether SPX can hit that area on or around Jan 4th (that would basically be by the end of the current week where trading finishes on Friday 5th).
If all these things come to pass, then the likelihood of an important peak is high (but not of course guaranteed). The next target is 2367 to be achieved by Jan 19th (or preferably Jan 29th).
Can the market spike upwards into Jan 4th/5th and then enter a sharp correction phase? Time will tell. Cash levels are very low, margin and speculation is high, so the conditions for a sharp reversal exist.
kunsan
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As expected/hoped the market has shot upwards into the 'perfect 2714/17 target price, touching 2714 last night. Today, January 4th, is the Bradley date, with the next important date at Jan 29th. The question is whether the market will peak in the 2714/17 area and then decline sharply towards the end of january. target is 2367, down 350 points or so. Yes, I know that is a tall order, but stranger things have happened. What I would like to see is a final spike and sharp reversal in the 2714/17 area showing a strong reversal candle. And I'd like that to happen today or tomorrow to coincide with the Bradley date.
Whether anything will result from this analysis is difficult to tell. If *if* we get a spike and reversal from 2714/17 today or tomorrow then the omens are high that a top has been reached. No guarantees of course.
kunsan
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I too see a possible ending diagonal developing, but not as high as you suggest. 2690 or so is logical.
mikeoakster
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Instead of an ending diagonal, my idea is of an impulse that could have the 1st wave extended, the 3rd smaller than the 1st, the 4th smaller than the 2nd, and the 5th smaller than the 3rd, in a wedged shape.
Teich50
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So no Christmas rally according to your count/plan? Your circle ii happens on around Jan 1, 2018.
mikeoakster
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Actually, I'm expecting a flat pattern for Minute [ii], so perhaps by Christmas the market will be making higher highs in order to complete wave (b) of the flat, so then an impulse unfolds to the downside to complete the pattern.
mikeoakster
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This editor erases the brackets...
I wanted to say: "... I'm expecting a flat pattern for Minute ((ii))..."
If the market does go into correction mode (no guarantee that it will) I am looking for a sharp correction - sharp enough to create margin calls that in turn will exacerbate the selling.
There is a confluence of Fib, trend line and date timing in the 2367 area at the end of January. Can the market correct and go that low? Unlikely, but we'll see.