RobertZafaras

stock top one more time

Short
RobertZafaras Updated   
FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
TaLK about a coiled top!!!
even Barrons talking about the coiled spring on volatility sellers. I've seen the algo's when they run a muck and I wouldn't be short volatility here. Picking up pennies
and nickels in front of a steam roller. Sure the short e-mini puts has worked marvelously up till now. But short vol always works until it doesn't at 2471 my gosh lets buy some e mini puts
or take some all right short e mini.
Proctor and Gamble as much as saying paying for ***Face book ads is paying for BOTS to read them. I've been saying this for years.
Trade active:
2401 target
Comment:
puts are active in the September 15th traders are buying 1625 puts for $0.25 each
so for the full size S&P that's $62.50 to hedge at the 1,625 level in 7 weeks.
with a vix in the Ten dollar range what could go wrong?
about 850 points out of the money with 7 weeks to go. Hedging full size or (5) e minis.
Getting close to the money here is a decent risk/reward same contract Expires on September 15th. Use the 2,300 strike. 170 or so out of the money these closed at
$6.00 with a nice open interest of 21,278 contracts on the e-mini. $300 per e mini to buy or sell the vol on the 2,300 strike. I'm a put buyer here.
That's normally not a good strategy I think it may work this time
Comment:
Small speculators are now 70% long on the full size S&P contract. I've rarely seen this 70% number. FADE this one .
go short the e-mini here
Comment:
last time at the CME floor talking to Chris about the escapades of one Victor Neiderhoffer. Victor "education of a speculator" took one to many short puts.
I told Chris I was scared to death of Victor's strategy.. his reply...
"you should be scared to death" and ultimately Victor blew up.
Too many guys short premium now. I just have a feeling.
Comment:
on the Long Term Capital......
"we had two nobel prize winners and we brought the financial system to it's Knees."
from phone conversation with the (at the time) General Counsel )
Trade active:
stay short the e mini
Trade active:
add short e mini
Trade active:
stay short the s and p
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