A Deeper look into price action for the week ahead
Alpha Capital Wealth
Market analysis part 1
Reading the tape
Today is Tuesday
4 August 2020
We looking at the daily chart of the spy or spider
Which is the proxy for the spx500
What do we have on the table today ?
Well despite the narrow range market
We had all day today
We have a lot on the table today
There’s a lot to discuss
We going to take a look around the horn
Look at a number of charts
We going to throw in some stuff
That you not thinking about
Later on we going to focus on a little bit
On the energy market
We going to circle around the bond market
That’s coupled with a conspiracy theory
And that’s more of a big picture conversation
We will save that for later
Right now let’s focus on the daily chart of the spider spy
What jumps off the page ?
Is anything different today ?
Then was on Friday ?
Did the market really do anything ?
They had a gap up
They in no mans land
It’s bullish
They ended Friday bullish
We spoke about it in yesterday’s update
There are no surprises on Monday morning
Market was trading up
It’s the first day of the month
Light volume
Quite markets
The path of least resistance
Is generally sideways
To higher
Let’s talk for a moment about no mans land
Where the market maybe headed
In the near term
First we have a former higher
3272.3
So they gap above it today
Stay above it
That’s bullish
We have to talk about the duck
Alpha Capital wealth
Market analysis
Part 2
Let’s talk about the Duck
The duck is
And this is the thing
If it walks like a duck
Talks like a duck
Generally speaking it’s going to the duck
So here
The duck is higher prices
Obviously the
Trick
Trap
Fool
And frustrate crew
Will show up at some point in time
Try and pull the rug out
Get ride of some weak hands and or over leveraged traders.
Little bit of a shake out operation
We know the routine
What’s a good time for that ?
If they going to have a time for that ?
How about within the next few hours from now
Let’s just a hypothetical for a moment
The hypothetical is
You wake up red
The conversation is
Yesterday was just an attempted
Breakout
They failing
And what actually happens is
They come down to fill the gap
From Friday
Spy Friday close price
Maybe go a little bit lower
By the morning they popped back up
The band continues playing along
It was nothing other than
A normal
Garden variety
Shake out operation
We don’t know that’s going to happen
I’m just going the hypothetical
Because why ?
Because it’s turn around Tuesday
And you have to expect the unexpected
Alpha Capital wealth
Market analysis
Part 3
What happens if we wake up to another gap higher ?
What’s the real objective going up north ?
And by the way before we get to the real objective going up north
Let’s just discuss where the real failure takes place in the southern direction
How do we know if the market really is
Tethering on a failure
At least from a short term prospective
What we will not wanna see if you’re in the bull camp
The bulls do not wanna see the market losing hourly and then daily below 3240
That doesn’t really mean everything unravels
At that price
But that’s the first sign
For me from where I sit
That’s the first sign of trouble
What kinda trouble ?
Trouble in the bull neighborhood
That would be a more real time intraday
Inside the learning core group kinda thing anyway
Okay let’s focus back up north
So they in no mans land
It is bullish
If you remember from yesterday’s update
We looked at key price levels and key important numbers
The learning core students know those numbers
They didn’t close above it last Friday
But they were close
They tried to finish on the highs for the week
Now they’ve gap up the following week
They in no mans land
What’s the prize ?
What’s the objective ?
What’s the destination?
Well it’s the gap
3334.8 Very Important number
It does have to be all the markets going to do in the northern direction
However
We will normally be expecting a reaction
In the other direction
Yes we would
Maybe it comes in a little bit higher
Maybe they come up short
And have a pretty good reaction in the other direction
We’ve seen that many many times before
That general zone is on the table
It is the target
It may not be easy to get there
They may gap up
They may over it on day
The whole thing is an awareness
That’s the target
It’s hard to believe for many traders out there
They are climbing the wall of worry
But it is what it is
We been here before
We seen this before
It is officially and unofficially
From a technical perspective
A melt up
You can put any phrase you want
Don’t fight the fed
Wall of worry
It doesn’t make any difference
It doesn’t change the fact
Of what they doing
What they doing is
Heading to a destination
Our destination for now is the gap
Remember end of July into August
We begin looking for
Signs and signals of a trend change
Time is more important than price
Time matches up with price
You generally get the prize
We don’t know if the GAP is the ultimate price destination
But through our acw learning core our students are taught to understand
And handle this situation
How do you do that ?
You begin looking for signs and signals
Of a trend change
And when those occur
At a specific price
For example in this case it might be the gap
And it happens within an important time zone
Guess what ?
You generally filled up the bingo board
Now
Here’s the thing that we generally need to be aware off
Alpha Capital Wealth
Market analysis
Part 4
Look what’s going on here over the last few weeks
We’ve been riding the 20 period moving average in a channel
Okay fair enough
Some will say
That these channels have a tendency to break to the down side
Ultimately that may happen
However there is another scenario
They up the top side of the channel and melt up some more
The point in not to discuss the channel
The point is to discuss what this ends up to be
Which is a creeping market
Forget the intra day stuff
The back and forth
The chop shop formations
Forget all that stuff
Just look at the daily chart of the Spx500
And you see that the market has been on an upward grind
It’s not really classified as a bump and grind
It’s just a grind
Be weary of a creeping market
Lite volume
A little spark with a lot of volume coming in at the same time in either direction
Note this is good for the downside and this is also good for the upside
ACW NFP Strategy will cover this
So either way a flood of volume
Comes into a quiet market
It will run hard and fast
You will have another short covering leg if it’s to the upside
And you will take the elevator down real fast
If its to the down side
So we have to be aware
It’s a 2 sided awareness
Doubled edged sword
2 sided Coin
Beware of the current channel
It can break to the downside but also get sucked up to the upside
So right now the trend is the dominant thing
On the chart
The trend on the
daily
Weekly
The trend is UP
So the trend is your friend until it goes away
The trend isn’t going away anytime soon
The market can be down but the trend can still be up
It’s an AWARENESS
WRITE THAT ONE DOWN
Sticky note time
Write the last couple down
Alpha Capital Wealth
Market analysis part 1
Reading the tape
Today is Tuesday
4 August 2020
We looking at the daily chart of the spy or spider
Which is the proxy for the spx500
What do we have on the table today ?
Well despite the narrow range market
We had all day today
We have a lot on the table today
There’s a lot to discuss
We going to take a look around the horn
Look at a number of charts
We going to throw in some stuff
That you not thinking about
Later on we going to focus on a little bit
On the energy market
We going to circle around the bond market
That’s coupled with a conspiracy theory
And that’s more of a big picture conversation
We will save that for later
Right now let’s focus on the daily chart of the spider spy
What jumps off the page ?
Is anything different today ?
Then was on Friday ?
Did the market really do anything ?
They had a gap up
They in no mans land
It’s bullish
They ended Friday bullish
We spoke about it in yesterday’s update
There are no surprises on Monday morning
Market was trading up
It’s the first day of the month
Light volume
Quite markets
The path of least resistance
Is generally sideways
To higher
Let’s talk for a moment about no mans land
Where the market maybe headed
In the near term
First we have a former higher
3272.3
So they gap above it today
Stay above it
That’s bullish
We have to talk about the duck
Alpha Capital wealth
Market analysis
Part 2
Let’s talk about the Duck
The duck is
And this is the thing
If it walks like a duck
Talks like a duck
Generally speaking it’s going to the duck
So here
The duck is higher prices
Obviously the
Trick
Trap
Fool
And frustrate crew
Will show up at some point in time
Try and pull the rug out
Get ride of some weak hands and or over leveraged traders.
Little bit of a shake out operation
We know the routine
What’s a good time for that ?
If they going to have a time for that ?
How about within the next few hours from now
Let’s just a hypothetical for a moment
The hypothetical is
You wake up red
The conversation is
Yesterday was just an attempted
Breakout
They failing
And what actually happens is
They come down to fill the gap
From Friday
Spy Friday close price
Maybe go a little bit lower
By the morning they popped back up
The band continues playing along
It was nothing other than
A normal
Garden variety
Shake out operation
We don’t know that’s going to happen
I’m just going the hypothetical
Because why ?
Because it’s turn around Tuesday
And you have to expect the unexpected
Alpha Capital wealth
Market analysis
Part 3
What happens if we wake up to another gap higher ?
What’s the real objective going up north ?
And by the way before we get to the real objective going up north
Let’s just discuss where the real failure takes place in the southern direction
How do we know if the market really is
Tethering on a failure
At least from a short term prospective
What we will not wanna see if you’re in the bull camp
The bulls do not wanna see the market losing hourly and then daily below 3240
That doesn’t really mean everything unravels
At that price
But that’s the first sign
For me from where I sit
That’s the first sign of trouble
What kinda trouble ?
Trouble in the bull neighborhood
That would be a more real time intraday
Inside the learning core group kinda thing anyway
Okay let’s focus back up north
So they in no mans land
It is bullish
If you remember from yesterday’s update
We looked at key price levels and key important numbers
The learning core students know those numbers
They didn’t close above it last Friday
But they were close
They tried to finish on the highs for the week
Now they’ve gap up the following week
They in no mans land
What’s the prize ?
What’s the objective ?
What’s the destination?
Well it’s the gap
3334.8 Very Important number
It does have to be all the markets going to do in the northern direction
However
We will normally be expecting a reaction
In the other direction
Yes we would
Maybe it comes in a little bit higher
Maybe they come up short
And have a pretty good reaction in the other direction
We’ve seen that many many times before
That general zone is on the table
It is the target
It may not be easy to get there
They may gap up
They may over it on day
The whole thing is an awareness
That’s the target
It’s hard to believe for many traders out there
They are climbing the wall of worry
But it is what it is
We been here before
We seen this before
It is officially and unofficially
From a technical perspective
A melt up
You can put any phrase you want
Don’t fight the fed
Wall of worry
It doesn’t make any difference
It doesn’t change the fact
Of what they doing
What they doing is
Heading to a destination
Our destination for now is the gap
Remember end of July into August
We begin looking for
Signs and signals of a trend change
Time is more important than price
Time matches up with price
You generally get the prize
We don’t know if the GAP is the ultimate price destination
But through our acw learning core our students are taught to understand
And handle this situation
How do you do that ?
You begin looking for signs and signals
Of a trend change
And when those occur
At a specific price
For example in this case it might be the gap
And it happens within an important time zone
Guess what ?
You generally filled up the bingo board
Now
Here’s the thing that we generally need to be aware off
Alpha Capital Wealth
Market analysis
Part 4
Look what’s going on here over the last few weeks
We’ve been riding the 20 period moving average in a channel
Okay fair enough
Some will say
That these channels have a tendency to break to the down side
Ultimately that may happen
However there is another scenario
They up the top side of the channel and melt up some more
The point in not to discuss the channel
The point is to discuss what this ends up to be
Which is a creeping market
Forget the intra day stuff
The back and forth
The chop shop formations
Forget all that stuff
Just look at the daily chart of the Spx500
And you see that the market has been on an upward grind
It’s not really classified as a bump and grind
It’s just a grind
Be weary of a creeping market
Lite volume
A little spark with a lot of volume coming in at the same time in either direction
Note this is good for the downside and this is also good for the upside
ACW NFP Strategy will cover this
So either way a flood of volume
Comes into a quiet market
It will run hard and fast
You will have another short covering leg if it’s to the upside
And you will take the elevator down real fast
If its to the down side
So we have to be aware
It’s a 2 sided awareness
Doubled edged sword
2 sided Coin
Beware of the current channel
It can break to the downside but also get sucked up to the upside
So right now the trend is the dominant thing
On the chart
The trend on the
daily
Weekly
The trend is UP
So the trend is your friend until it goes away
The trend isn’t going away anytime soon
The market can be down but the trend can still be up
It’s an AWARENESS
WRITE THAT ONE DOWN
Sticky note time
Write the last couple down
Trade closed: target reached
