$SPX Failure Options

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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Owing largely to macro global concerns and corporate earnings , I have been somewhat bearish on the market and correctly called the recent pullback.

I am in full agreement with those who believe we will test the 200DMA (2014) or possibly visit 2000 which would be a measured move on the widely discussed head and shoulders pattern current in place. If the market should fail in the near term, it might be a failure of a retest of 2059/2060 or slightly higher beneath point B at 2064.

An alternative view based upon the fact that next week is OPEX, is that the market pushes higher and forms a bearish shark at a slightly higher level. The folks at Quantifiable Edges note the OPEX week for April is particularly strong with a win rate of 63% for longs with an average gain of 2.3% and a maximum of 5.7%.

Notwithstanding MACD and other indicators rolling over, which they did last November only to see the same prices in December, it’s quite possible for the SPX to push towards the 2091/2093 level and then retreat. This level is compelling because of the confluence of resistance, Fib extensions and channel constraints. And it would be only a modest 2% gain increase off of Friday’s close of 2048.

I’ll conclude by saying however this plays out its likely to be a maddening affair as the last time the market tested the 200DMA from above was in November of last year and it took about ten trading days to complete the task.

P.S. Dashed blue lines are fierce support and resistance .
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