YaKa

SPX - BIG PICTURE - Monthly Candles Since 1987

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
181 6 5
3 points:
1) SPX             clearly broke below the monthly support since Mar09 (in 2000 and 2007 this was really the end).
2) Whatever happens even a bull resumption would find it very difficult to break 2200 (that was already true when we were flirting with those levels).
3) The last bottom hit around 1800 is really an important support that will be difficult to break but would open to abyssal trading.

Conclusion:
If we are lucky to get 2080/2150 again: short strategically/buy 1200 Dec17 puts.

The chart below explains why I was so negative from Nov14... it respected the Top line but with time it converted me into believing it could flirt with it longer (for 3% potential upside/ I missed 12% down but this was too slow to come)
How could you trend line off of the 2002 bottom support but not 2005-2013?? So ALLLLL those years where overbought or over sold. I think not. Maybe you should go back to the drawing board with this one.
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Great stuff Yacine...My view below:

Glad to be on a similar page.
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YaKa PRO IvanLabrie
yep.. big pic: the next 2 years are very likely corrective...
the next 8 weeks: i am not so sure and i am playing long here.
+1 Reply
Long now?
Wow...I wouldn't dare.
+1 Reply
SimonJonsson IvanLabrie
I am also long for fib retrace to 0.618
Reply
SimonJonsson SimonJonsson
retrace to 0.618 happened on almost every little crash 2000 and 2008.
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