Looks like S&P is losing support of the 20 day SMA. You can see that it is currently clearly below the 20 day close SMA and now looks to below the 20 day low SMA. You can see in my chart that when this happens the indicator turns red and almost every time some level of pull back follows. How low is always the questions. It seems like the minimal pull back should be a test of the 200 day SMA (black line). This also corresponds to a test of the previous down channel (orange) and the major support trend line (blue). Note, that we seem to have a clear rejection of the red down channel. Will we retest this resistance after a pull back or will S&P continue lower?
Close up
Look at the 1 week timeframe.
Comment
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The close was promising for the bulls as it pulled back up inside the 20 day low SMA band. The bears really need to have the close below this band.
You may be right. This can be the start of a whole new move.
Inaugural
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I am on the same page here, with a few supporting arguments:
Short arguments: Elliot Wave did not - Expected wave C to go farther to flip it to a wave 3 on long Fibonacci retracement stopped right at 4178 (50%) - Closes at top and bottom of the initial downtrend We have crossed 21 EMA currently All data isn't helping the feds bullish hoorah's on rates for long-term
Long arguments: Golden cross last week with 50 and 200 MAs We are still north of that major downtrend between the yellow
Outlook: Closing below 4070 today would have us below the 21 day EMA Support around 3980 with 50 MA and our upward rally trend line