Do you see the repeating pattern??? What I see - So this is the Outter Space view where we see this massive wedge building since 2007. By August 2021 we are either going to go off the roadmap or there will be an epic meltdown. My guess is that $13 Trillion in sovereign debt and QE will eventually be the karma for the meltdown.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY
I don't think it'll make it to the end of the wedge. I think we're looking at next month for the sell off.
MoneyPatterns
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@BMLemon, Me too, but I need to cover all angles. If we continuation into 2020 in the wedge, the 401K money might start kicking in. I was expecting a previous selloff with all other factors, until the Fed printed 200B quietly and directly put it into the market.
When I ask myself - Is it it more likely that:
1-Everyone eats turkey and leaves their money in the market?
2-Either the individual investors, institutions, or both will take money out for Christmas or to increase profits for year end bonuses at ATH?
3-The banks and institutions screw everyone and ring the register while the average Joe is sleeping from a turkey nap and took time off work?
I think 2 and 3 are most likely. Risk is to the downside.
Thanks for your comment also. I appreciate all comments even if we don't agree. :)
MoneyPatterns
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@BMLemon, Forgot to mention 1 more thing - the wedge runs out of room 1 year after the 2yr/10yr inversion. August/September 2021. Hmmmm.. Coincidence???
BMLemon
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@jbird7839, I think it'll do what the majority of people aren't expecting. So if most people are drawing their wedges in a way that gives them more time, it'll drop sooner.
I don't know about 401K money kicking, tbh. More and more boomers are going to retire soon, if they get a single hint of downside, regardless of their political affiliations, they're not going to sacrifice their life savings.
I'm sitting in SPAXX in the meantime until something resolves. Which worries me too. I don't know how the pending repo meltdown will effect money market funds, considering SPAXX is 50% gov repo's.
Something to consider here:
BMLemon
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whelp, it took a while and I questioned my decisions more than once. Glad I stayed strong and kept my bird-in-the-hand, rather than chasing after the two in the bush. Now to find the dollar before the buck gets broke. Hopefully trading won't be closed during those critical moments.
MoneyPatterns
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@BMLemon, Good for you bro! These kind of things build self-confidence in your trading skills. This was a very difficult time recently.
Sometimes you have to look crazy to prove you are not. That is part of the reason I just quit posting here.
Tired of arguing my position to a few AAPL bulltards. Easier to prove I am right with money.
This week sucked for some people....but I see 6 trades in my account between 400% and 900% profit. Single day to weekend hold.
This ain't over either.
Ask yourself this - If CoV affects old people - Senators, Congress, Supreme Court, most heads of state....all sick or terminally ill from CoV.
What happens to the market then, from here?
How do we replace multiple elected officials at once?
Who will be participating in the market when no 401K's are matching after companies close and employees are terminated?
Continue to trust your gut friend.
BMLemon
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@MoneyPatterns, Wait til the pope catches it. I'm targeting the 1700-2000 range. That's when I'll start scaling back in. What are your targets?
MoneyPatterns
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@BMLemon, Watching SPY $151 or lower. But anything is possible. Sad thing is...what I see is probably 1-2 years of flat-line. Dead market.
Once all this liquidity doesn't work, there is no ammo left, market John Doe average guy loses faith in market after 10 years 401K erased in a week.
1929 was a 90% correction
2008 was a 58% correction
Do we think this is more like a financial crisis or a Spanish Flu crisis? I know my answer.
I am trying to be nice with 151....cuz otherwise I look really bearish/crazy. Been bullish my whole life until I see train has no conductor.
BMLemon
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@MoneyPatterns, Yes, we're more or less around the same target. I think it'll reverse sharply leaving many who were late to sell in the dust. Things like this are coordinated and perfect use to consolidate power. Watch that 200 month MA, I think it'll tag that, perhaps even the 350 month, as observed during the 2008 recession.
From there, I'm looking at large cap value stocks, as banks raise their rates and receive bailouts, they should rocket first.