I'm impressed with the pricing and timing. So I went back and recreated your work. Since the market overshot your prediction of (B), I got wave (C) around 1780.
Another thing, you've one chart show wave (C) terminating in mid-2020 and another chart later in March 2021. Can you clarify?
Thanks for posting.
ndau
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@mpulley, I am currently going with the scenario of wave C ending in July 2020 but will see how it develops.
AlbCM
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That was an excellent call, man. Congrats, very well done. However, that leg down almost 50% looks kind of dubious. The market tanked only 35% peak-to-through on the biggest economic crisis since the Great depression. Now when the worst is over you are saying even bigger drop coming up next. On what? Aliens invasion?
ndau
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@AlbCM, Thank you. No, this was purely based on technical pattern (see my comment below). However, there are a number of fundamental factors developing right now that could cause it, e.g. riots in the US, Hong Kong, conflict with China, high unemployment, high PE ratios, second coronavirus wave etc.
Ignoring politics, riots could substantially increase the Covid-19 transmission among the most vulnerable population. People are not yet considering this but it will be evident in a week after the incubation period of the disease.
However, I may be completely wrong (which is not uncommon!).
cuntole
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Amazing. Can you tell me how you calculated points B and C?
ndau
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@cuntole, I was just trying to replicate the drop in the Chinese market. I was speculating what would happen if (1) wave B in the US market retraced the same proportion as it did in the Chinese market after the epidemic and (2) wave C in the US market also followed the same fib extension as the wave C of the Chinese market. Given that most of the trading is done by algorithms, I thought that they might respond in the same way to a major event.
ndau
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@ndau, the number of days for wave B and C were also estimated from this chart.
DB1321
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@ndau, do you still see about 3150 on spx then? another 2-3 weeks?
ndau
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@Nik1321, yes, the pattern is quite mature though it could go up to 3250. I am going with the following Elliott wave count. I need to see five waves in the C wave which could complete next week or could take a couple of weeks.
DB1321
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@ndau, I don't really agree with your count mate. Your (a) is too big compared to the expected (c) and the (b) is too shallow. I prefer the iii ending where your v has ended, the iv where your (b) is and we are currently in v.. if wave i = v then v should target around 3226... just my opinion
Another thing, you've one chart show wave (C) terminating in mid-2020 and another chart later in March 2021. Can you clarify?
Thanks for posting.