Dr_Roboto

S&P 500 - Something to ponder over the long weekend

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
Enjoy the long weekend.
Comment: Some more context
Comment: All together
Comment: The down channel slope is something that shows up often over the last several years.
Comment: And a close up

Comments

The Bear is coming ... the Covid cases are higher than they have ever been, people will lose their jobs, the stimulus is dragging... the drop is about to come ... not to mention, what does another $600 in paycheck really do unless you're barely making it which will not result in any significant economic difference anyways ... I think the Stock Market is irrational and frankly just stupid, which is actually a great time to make $$$
+5 Reply
unicow sipiceanu
@sipiceanu, I agree. The stock market has gone mad!
+1 Reply
poister198 sipiceanu
@sipiceanu, market is not dumb, spike in cases is already priced in.

Some companies going down just props up the other mega companies in S&P 500.

Might crash if a black hole swallows the Earth.
Reply
sipiceanu poister198
@poister198, "Crash" may be a harsh word, but a correction similar to March 2020 is possible because no one anticipated 175,000 daily cases of Covid recently, and it's not going to get better... if anything a Sept 2, 2020 (11%) correction is possible. I would hope the market is not dumb, but when I read news like Dow Jones is up because Yellen is coming back, if that is the reason for excitement then people are not looking at fundamentals here but acting on emotion ...
+2 Reply
unicow sipiceanu
@poister198 the market is not usually dumb... but when asset prices are already high (and they were high in Jan/Feb of 2020 before the covid-19 lockdowns) and floods of first-time investors come into the market to the point where permabull Jim Cramer can't rationalize why stocks are going up... then I don't know what other conclusion to draw today.
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Thank you for all of this, @Dr_Roboto. I'm curious what you think about charting SPX divided by Gold or the Swiss Franc? The reason I'm wondering this is the Federal Reserve has increased the money supply by something like 28% if I recall correctly since March. Could the amount of currency in M2 or M3 be a factor in understanding the charts?
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The market seems to be wanting to price in a second stimulus, negative rates and direct fed buying of stocks....

If those don't come true soon then it will correct big big.
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yupyupyup yupyupyup
@yupyupyup, Thing is if those catalysts do happen....is it not hyperinflation time?
+1 Reply
great analysis! 👍🏻🦐🔝👊🏻
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Thank you. Needed that.
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