So far this is still working out as a textbook 5 wave up pattern with 4 forming now. Maybe wave 4 is complete. I'm waiting for a blow-off top to go short.
Trying to entice the market to agree with a micro trend is useless. The cumulative data is already there for a transitional sharp reversal but in this holiday drunkenness period it is Impossible to achieve. Look at bond yields. it is obviously going to DOUBLE from here and in 2022. YET transitory is the assumption still. The deflation psychology reinforced for 40 years is too damn strong. Will need multiple knocks on the head to realize this. Perhaps In late January? Depends of the acceleration of inflation pressures.
peterdcharlebois
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@gdleibow, I get the fundamental picture you're laying out. Very good analysis. For me I tend to look almost solely at the technical. Price action above all else in the end, will be the most telling factor for me. Indeed I will only take a view of a confirmed change of trend below 4490. If your prediction of the sell-off not starting until January is correct then a larger move up will occur and we will surpass the old highs by quite a bit. We will only know which scenario it is after it's happened. It's why I pick good technical levels to trade from. As I said, my line in the sand is 4490