Technical Reasons - 200 MA right above (resistance) - multiple converging resistances - 0.618 retrace completed (bear market rallies exhaust here) - ABCD extension suggests that the CD leg terminates at a 127.2% to 161.8% expansion of the BC leg
Fundamental Reasons - you already know them - we are unprepared for wave 2 - elections will be postponed - credit downgrades will occur between now and DEC - retail has been absorbing the institutional selling in the last month of SPX being pinned between 2700 - 3000, look at the explosion in accounts at retail brokerage houses (1920's ring a bell?) and the fact that robinhood users bag holding F, GE, airlines, cruise lines, etc. (google robintrack to see for yourself)
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Here is the NQ weekly.
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Zoom in to the daily.
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ES 4 HR - not outisde the realm of possibility it tags upper channel first.
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Just spotted a invs h&s...
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4HR Chart
If bulls fail to defend this inverse h&s right shoulder, the fix is in and it's time to start piling on aggressively in preparation for the channel break and the start of wave 3 down.
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Popping a right shoulder using a rising wedge, genius!
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Here's the NQ today.
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SPX 4HR chart - here's that pesky h&s we popped from, already throwing back to test.
I have a feeling it will not hold.
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ES 4HR - bulls had the easiest invs h&s layup and flinched because they're saturated and exhausted.
Looking for that channel support next. I am confident here to take more aggressive fading of every rally retrace attempt during the day.
Trade active
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Short from 3008 - playing the 61.8% wedge pullback rejection.
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This better not break to the upside...
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Double hourly print on bbands exhaustion.
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Playing out.
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Rising wedge headfake break out for bulls, right into overbought upper bollinger bands on 2 & 3 std. dev.
@szey, Short term & only if bulls defend the invs. h&s from breaking. If they lose control of that, they are out of steam and it's time to pile on the shorts.
@szey, I mean, bulls have everything going in their favour here and backing of the Fed. If they flinch on this, then they're out of steam and I'd feel confident in staying short. In fact, I'm bagholding 2 54s (in MES) but plan to add more tomorrow sometime, depending how it goes.