2. On wave 5 (3000,3200, 3450 possible extensions)- 2.62 very veeeery unlikely
3. Watch out on Macroeconomic factors + trade negotiations(china+ EU+ US factors)
4. Last presidential election 2016, market started going down for the period: July 2015-February 2016=> Expecting Market increase starting the summer of 2019- Ending Spring 2020; If supports are broken Spring 2020 asset bubble pop-off.
Expecting Spain and couple of other European economies to start down trending as a sign/foreshadowing a crash in the SPX .
P.S. I didn't mean to make this public, but here it is.
1. MACD cross=> any rate drop in the FED rate may help boost stocks in the short-term, but it will further decrease the yields on 5-10 years
2. Empirical research: 3 month to 5/10 year yield Inversion is quite a successful binary predictor for recessions occurring 3-5 quarters in the future.
3. Initial inversion occurred March 2019 on the 3 month to 5 year T.Bonds yields=> Increasing the probability of a recession for Q1 2020-Q3 2020.
Corporate buy-back and the trade of debt for equity will cause a crisis.
As trade tensions rise, markets will start feeling the outcomes once economic data becomes available. If the trade tensions continue throughout the year, there might be a culmination point that will lead to a recession in the autumn.
Wave 5: Target #1 Hit(3022)
Target #2(3400) will depend on the US/CHINA DEAL.
Either way it's not looking good for the bulls in the medium term.
This update provides a major support to this idea. Kind of angry that I didn't notice this wedge pattern on the SPX monthly earlier, although at this point it's quite certainly confirmed.
Make or break time at the end of 2019.
I will keep updating this idea and probably if I have time make a new chart further elaborating some of the points from this chart.