S&P 500 Roadmap: Correction Rally Ending—Another Drop Is Coming

Nov 24, 2025

As I expected in the previous idea, the S&P 500 index(SPX) moved toward the broken Support lines and completed its pullback, reaching its targets.

Given that the S&P 500 index nowadays shows a significant correlation with the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin(BTCUSDT), it’s wise to pay even more attention to this index, as it can help us gauge the crypto market trends.

The S&P 500 is approaching a Resistance zone($6,675_$6,637), and considering the momentum of last weekend’s decline, it appears that this recent upward movement is merely a correction. Therefore, we should expect another decline in the S&P 500.

Since the U.S. dollar index(DXY) is also likely to maintain an upward trend, the rise in the dollar can lead to more capital flowing into safer assets, potentially impacting the S&P 500 negatively.

The S&P 500 is also influenced by the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10). If the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield trends upwards, then riskier assets like cryptocurrencies might go down more, and this, in turn, could also impact the S&P 500.

Considering all the above, I expect that the S&P 500 will at least test its Support zone($6,580_$6,490) again and, if that Support zone($6,580_$6,490) is broken, we could anticipate further declines in the U.S. stock market and the S&P 500.

First Target: $6,526

Second Target: $6,413

Stop Los(SL): $6,731

💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.

📌S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame.

🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.

✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!

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Nov 25, 2025

Trade active

PPI m/m (Forecast: 0.3% | Prev: -0.1%)
Core PPI m/m (Forecast: 0.3% | Prev: -0.1%)
Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: +0.4% | Prev: +0.6%)
Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: +0.3% | Prev: +0.7%)

My base case: Slightly hotter-than-expected PPI (0.0% to +0.1%) + in-line or slightly weaker Retail Sales → mild hawkish tilt → SPX opens flat-to-red, tests 6,653

Nov 25, 2025

Trade closed: stop reached

Stop Loss was touched