I will enter an 50% position here in the SPX . Only 50% because there is still a chance it's going to drop down to the 100 MA / 100 EMA at around 2590- 2600 on the weekly chart. If we tag 2600 I will enter the other 50%.
I don't think the bull is over but it's the last serious decline before we enter the parabolic stage. RSI6 is printing divergences. We tagged the 400 EMA today.
The FED will not be able to hike this December with a collapsing market. Powell will need to start to talk down the dollar it will help stocks to recover fast. The easiest way to start to question the 4th rate hike this year. I bet they will follow this way. Trump will not let the market collapse ahead of the election. They can do anything with him except one thing: stock market crash in the middle of his presidency.
Comment
⋅
I tried to insert the weekly chart into the text but was not working, so here it is again. Still chance to tag the 100 SMA /100EMA.
Trump is the boy who cried wolf , his bellicose disposition is wearing thin , only the true red meat eaters are still on board and a few delusional sociopathic billionaires . Trump will contribute greatly to the upcoming economic depression .
PowerOfCapital
⋅
one more down then up....
Sonic_scheme
⋅
Now that the channel is breaking, we can finally buy. maybe a week or two. but by g20 meeting we should shake the rest of the market out then finally go up.
SiriusTrading
⋅
mashru
⋅
Arpi. while I dont doubt the technicals on this call, I think the market - and especially the US markets - are on risk-off mode due to the mid-terms. Hence taking a call like this before the 5th or 6th could go either way (since the election itself could go either way)
If the Dems win either the house, senate or both (worst case scenario for markets) then you can be assured of blocking of all Trump's policies and that puts the entire last 2 year rally into question. Apart from the real possibility that they will push to impeach. Markets are being sold off due to this uncertainty. Anyone who has been long for the last 2 years based on Trumps policies would definitely not want to risk the gains (hence the incessant and sometimes illogical selling we are witnessing). The "buy-the-dips" guys are too small to be of any consequence right now when big money is moving out.
I would rather wait till the 6th and see what happens (sacrificing maybe 4-5% of the move higher) rather than buy now and wait and see if the Dems win - in which case a 10-15% down move will seem small!
bertcoin
⋅
@mashru, That's a safe bet. I'm betting some (well, really a lot) on going in a little earlier (like last Friday's low and if we get one more spike down) because the market upside of Republicans holding both houses is a lot more than the downside of a split congress. (Senate is staying Rep - no doubt now). The flood of overseas money into the US on a 2 house hold could be the biggest move in a generation. IMHO, just like 2016, the markets (those who bet real money) will call the election Monday or Tuesday morning. Either way - will be a fun ride to watch!
kaotic363
⋅
I fully agree and have started scaling in longs on the NY close today. Fed's hands are tied with housing slowing way down. We are in peak fear seasonally with mid-term elections. Blood is pouring and Bears are salivating..
Nightstar
⋅
I'm HELLA ready! But will play with TQQQ during this melt up. Gary Savage (sexiest man alive) and Steve Sjuggerud are very much in the Bull Camp as well :)
PowerOfCapital
⋅
The hope is Trump, I am waiting for his Twitter, lol. Seriously, i also think US stock market does not end yet,let's wait.....
RogerS
⋅
Any TP? 161.80% extension could be a good spot or you're expecting more in this cycle ?