Rarely have I seen a market become completely hostage to a fundamental news event as this market is to the US/Chinese trade talks.
At any given moment, any news report updating the progress or lack of it, seems to jolts the market on either side of the trade.
Last night I suggested shorts cover, after having over 100 points of potential downside in the bank, with the technical pattern suggestive of a sharp snap back move back up.
This morning with no agreement in sight, talks continuing, and new US tariffs raised from 10 % to 25 % overnight, S+P Futures are once again are trading down double digit.
With today's trading, and the long weekend ahead, there simply is to much "risk" on either side of the trade, accompanied by the element of huge immediate surprise for me to want to be in this market, or to know what will really happen next.
The technical damage substained by the market this week, is acute, and until/if the S+P 500 gets back above 2954, trend continues down, with 2900 now quantified resistance.
If the S+P takes out this weeks low at 2836, then trader's may gun for 2800 major support next
Traders should use absolute discretion in position size and stops, and look to get in and get out as soon as possible so as to not be whipsawed into a sudden very large losing trade, until some final, even temporary resolution of these trade talks is complete.
This is one of those rare times, where you might find better odds in risk management posted at the casino.
The US. Stock market has become Donald Trump's casino.
His henchmen control the Departments of State that now publish Chinese-type artificial employment figures and GDP numbers, buy and sell huge quantities of Crude Oil as part of the national reserve, control the Treasury - hence huge reserves of really notes and gold - and the Plunge Protection Team with its market moving powers, and apparently he says he now has hundreds of billions from tariffs - paid for by the American people - all to play with, all to gamble...
ho else in their right mind. could be throwing. money into this market, in the circumstances?
Anything to win.
Note history shows he is not very good at running Casinos at the end of the day...
His Dad can't bail him out this time... so the American people will ultimately have to...
It is a completely artificial market, as artificial as a Casino, yet the punters still pour in, as any Casino...
mstable
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@mstable, ps - "really notes" should be "treasury notes"...
mstable
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@mstable, And. note crude oil prices are the ultimate key to the power of the US economy... watch him start a war now to push crude prices through the roof.. and the stock market....
Don't forget, all casinos are. ultimately rigged...
Very well put.
Thank you for your continued unique market observations.
UnsungTraderTV
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Shorting with three month QQQ options here. Maximum loss is built in. This is the perfect situation for options.
Max_Initio
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Good description. It would make sense to short after trump tweet (it was during weekend). But left side of chart is always easy to read and it is history:)Now volatility is large. Not too bad for day trading but any news and direction changes rapidly.
CodedFlow
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what i completely don't understand is how come the hope is still there after so many deliberations... why hope is so high ? is anyone selling powder to enhance it daily ?
BMLemon
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always consider the weight of gravity. It could much more easily go down than go up. Consider that all the large companies are buying back their stock and creating an artificial scarcity. I would be leery going long at this point.
You espouse my exact trading philosophy on gravity.
Completely agree on buybacks.
I would be leary of doing much of anything at this point.
Thanks for your commentary. Appreciated
mstable
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@BMLemon, Gravity only applies to something higher than air. The stock market is lighter than air over time and this particular market might as well be made out of helium... because its all a dream... like winning at the casino... it. must go up.
His henchmen control the Departments of State that now publish Chinese-type artificial employment figures and GDP numbers, buy and sell huge quantities of Crude Oil as part of the national reserve, control the Treasury - hence huge reserves of really notes and gold - and the Plunge Protection Team with its market moving powers, and apparently he says he now has hundreds of billions from tariffs - paid for by the American people - all to play with, all to gamble...
ho else in their right mind. could be throwing. money into this market, in the circumstances?
Anything to win.
Note history shows he is not very good at running Casinos at the end of the day...
His Dad can't bail him out this time... so the American people will ultimately have to...
It is a completely artificial market, as artificial as a Casino, yet the punters still pour in, as any Casino...