SPX500 Breakdown Warning: Major Supports— Bigger Crash Ahead?

Nov 14, 2025

The S&P 500 index(SPX) has become increasingly significant recently, and it has a notable impact on cryptocurrency markets, especially Bitcoin(BTCUSDT). Therefore, analyzing the S&P 500 not only benefits its own market but also enhances our understanding of related markets.

Fundamental Analysis:

Volume confirms distribution, while the ongoing U.S. government shutdown delays critical data (CPI, PPI), fueling uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. Fed’s hawkish pause on rate cuts and tech sector rotation (TSLA -6%(TSLA), NVDA -3.5%(NVDA)) reinforce bearish momentum. Also, YTD performance now -3.2% in November — on pace for the worst monthly drop since 2008 (-7.5%

Technical Analysis:

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index is breaking the Support zone($6,773_$6,710) and moving near the Support lines and 50_SMA(Daily). Given recent data, there’s a possibility that these supports may break.

Additionally, according to Elliott Wave Theory, we can expect more corrective waves ahead.

I expect the SPX500 index to decline to$6,633 after the support cluster is broken in the first step.

First Target: $6,633

Second Target: $6,583

Stop Los(SL): $6,815

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S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame.

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Nov 17, 2025

Trade active

I expect the SPX 500 index to attack the Support lines and 50_SMA(Daily) again when the US market opens.

If the SPX500 index declines again, we can expect the crypto market, especially Bitcoin (Bitcoin's correlation with the SPX500 index has been high these weeks.)

Nov 17, 2025

Trade closed: target reached

First Target Done

Nov 18, 2025

Note

Full Target Done($6,583)