Mats000

Short term trade S&P 500, WTI, or EURSUD

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
The job-market report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was very strong. 312K new jobs created instead of a forecasted 177K, Blacks entering the job market as unemployed. This is good because they are no longer outside the job market. Next step is that they will be employed. There were other positive points as well, but you get the point.

S&P 500 futures
On the five minute chart the stock market did not like the report. Probably a misunderstanding. Everyone reading the report came to the conclusion that the economy was stronger than expected, but it took 10-15 minutes. Then the buying started. This was probably a combination of machines as well as people. The buying pressure grew gradually during the day.

EURUSD
The currency market reacted quicker. The dollar got a boost.

USDWTI
The oil market is driven by demand and the strong report would signal that demand would be higher than expected. However, the euphoria did not last so long because the next report was the EIA report on natural gas . The change in stocks was smaller than expected. Hence, maybe less consumption than expected. The response was very fast to this report even though it is about natural gas . EIA publishes the crude oil report 30 min later. Traders assumed that the situation for crude oil would be the same. The traders respond quickly to the stockpile report so less room to profit unless you have superior information.

What to trade?
* The S&P 500 would be preferred. Jobs are good for the economy. The stockmarket is in a slump. Moon cycle is up. I could expect the market to continue up early next week.
* EURUSD would be good too, but short term, maybe an hour. Monitor and get out as soon as you see EUR strength again.
* Oil is another option. Jobs is also good for oil , or at least that is what the market believed. I would have gotten out before the EIA report as I cannot forecast it. If you are a speed reader you might have picked up in the job-report that it is professional and administative jobs that have increased a lot, not manufacturing. So oil might not be a good choice. However, that would have been hard to pick up for an individual trader in real time.
Jan 07
Comment: Wrong label in chart: The EIA natural gas report was 15.30 and not 16.00 UCT

Also look at the S&P500 boost when the US cash market opened 14.30 UCT

Comments

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