Jobs Report was released today showing an increase in jobs added. To me, people working 2-3 part-time jobs is not adding employment. Most people in this group need to work multiple jobs because of poor pay, causing inflated jobs numbers. While the CNBC anchors say "goldie locks" for stocks, the charts show 12+ weeks of bullish trend indicating prices are overbought.
The Weekly trend on multiple charts seems to line up with Christmas week and the week after. RSI trend is 2 weeks MAX from breaking down. Next trend on Weekly is Bearish. Capitulation dots show that selling has started due to overbought price in a long bullish trend. December 2018 selloff lasted about 4 weeks - bullish trend took 1 week to reverse from same current trend level. Based on all these factors I see the bearish trend confirmation occurring the week of 12/9 or 12/16. I will be adding SPY puts into any strength in this area.
Markets are closed Christmas Day (Wednesday), which means people will have family the entire week visiting. While people are with their family, this would be the perfect time for the rug to be pulled by institutions. They steal 401K's while people eat turkey - then buy the dip caused by Stop Loss orders into January.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY, AAPL, ROKU.
Totally Agree with you Jbird. Todays rally is a hoax. Industraial production contracting and jobs rising?
Consumer is strong on piling credit card debt?
CNBC and large cap Hedge Funds playing games with individual investors. they wanted to show the profit in the accounts before the end of the year. they will pull the rugs on one early AM over the holiday weekend when everyone is with their families. go short or stop buying and watch.
- I am short on CAT, NFLX, DIA,
LOng on WBA.
MoneyPatterns
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@justimm, Thanks for commenting and sharing your thoughts. Not just the consumer, but the SP500 rally was fueled almost entirely by debt. They are printing money and doing Repo (Repurchases) to loan overnight liquidity to banks, which put the money in the market.
No individual investor other than 401K auto disbursements are going into the market IMO.
The institutions are putting the public at ease while they sell off gradually before the rug pull.
If you make a sudden move, you scare the herd.
21mins30secs into video. - Jeff Gundlach -
If things are so great "Then why does the Federal defecit and balance sheet match the overall performance of the S&P back to 2009?"
youtube.com/watch?v=4M8AP_L0E0I
Thank you very much for sharing your tickers as well. This gives others ideas.
WBA does look close to bullish trend reversal on the Daily.
DIA is ready to go down any day IMO. I did a chart on that one last week I think.
I may chart your other tickers today as a thank you for your comment, and to see what's cracking in those.
Have a good weekend!
justimm
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@jbird7839, Thank you So much. I am still new and learning. I am closely following you.
mappycarol
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AAPL refuses to drop. I will wait to buy puts again when SPY reaches 325 before Christmas, which is the ultimate target according to my tape-reading friend. Be careful, @jbird7839.
MoneyPatterns
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@mappycarol, I have seen more than one ticker this week get a downgrade one day, then an upgrade from another analyst very next day.
They are shaking out the weak hands.
Weekly bullish trend has been going since JUNE 2nd. I think 6 months is long enough. LOL
They are putting a 20% raise price target on something that has been overly bought with no EPS growth since 2015.
I have added to my puts and reduced my cost basis over $1.50 per contract. I give it 2 weeks tops.
Xmas is the best rug pull week of the year. Christmas day is on Wednesday, meaning almost everyone will be tied up with family the entire week.
mappycarol
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@jbird7839, My friend just flipped. Today is the TOP!
MoneyPatterns
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@mappycarol, Let's hope so. I think we have a day or two more going up but weekly trend is soooooo overbought.
Today's high stopped 20 cents short of all time high. Computer precision again.
It would make sense to selloff when everyone (individual investors) are in the market complacent on Xmas.
Take all their money. Charts lining up right around then.
So I am playing weeklys from 12/20 into 1/17.
Good luck mappy and thank you for the updates as always:)
BobbyBanksX
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Stressful bro. Banks need to stop playing these games!
MoneyPatterns
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@TuParkShakur, Don't let it get to you. This is what they are counting on.
Lion does not get angry when gazelle plays games. Runs around-acting a fool running in no direction.
Lion waits until gazelle is tired. Watching. Gazelle is easily distracted.
Unemotional old lion. Nothing in eyes when its in hunting mode. Totally focused. (This is why tigers and lions are BAD pets LOL)
Just got to tune it out. We know the end game. Gazelle is prey. Lion is king of the jungle.
Consumer is strong on piling credit card debt?
CNBC and large cap Hedge Funds playing games with individual investors. they wanted to show the profit in the accounts before the end of the year. they will pull the rugs on one early AM over the holiday weekend when everyone is with their families. go short or stop buying and watch.
- I am short on CAT, NFLX, DIA,
LOng on WBA.