The black arrow/path is my near-term forecast, I expect price to trade along this trajectory. As the title indicates, the market is near-term bullish but don't enter long or add until Feb 27th for the following reasons:
1) chart perspective: The structure is setting up for a sustained break of 5039 to make a final leg higher to complete a smaller degree wave 5 (I didn't draw the Elliot Wave Count in my chart, just trust me that we just completed a smaller degree wave 4 and are looking for confirmation that 5 has begun). Price will continue slightly higher for the next 1-3 days (2/22-2/26) and then consolidate - likely forming a w fractal - through Feb 28th (next Wednesday). After that it will make the sustained break higher and run through early March before topping.
2) logical perspective: new bulls (especially retail) is going to chase this gap up in SPY tomorrow (extra FOMO due to the NVDA jump) and they'll buy ignorant Feb 23 - Mar 1 OTM calls that are designed to expire worthless. If you're not already in you're late, its all good I'm not in yet. Simultaneously the perma-bears will pile in thinking its "over-extended" ... everybody playing loses temporarily.
Waiting until 2/27 will also give this enough tome to confirm long, a break back below 5000 is a warning sign for bulls and a break back below 4969 is Bearish.
The play is to wait until the implied volatility on calls for Mar 15 expiry or later cools off while price consolidates around 5039 (SPY 501). Buy SPY 505.00 calls on Feb 27 to prepare for the bigger move staring on Feb 28 (earliest expiration you should be eying is Mar 15, but I'm going to go out to April).
- Initial target range = 5050-5058, with point target 5074
-The upside continuation to this range will happen fast by 2/22-2/26, then it will consolidate between 5017 and 5088 as it prepares to make a sustained break of 5039. Don't FOMO.
- SPX and general market will make its main run from 2/28 to 3/15/2024. Goal Target = 5153, but it can go as high as 5208 before consolidating again or pulling back.
- Once you follow these directions and enter long (unless I post an update saying "cancel that"), the trailing stop loss will be the dotted black upsloping line.
~Good Luck This is the word of the Lord.
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Here is my SPY parallel that I posted previously alluding to an upcoming opportunity to catch the final rally before topping:
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We already got the initial break of 5039. In my original post I had a typo: the initial target range should be 5050 - 5088 (instead of 5050-5058)... we will hit that by 2/23. Then begin consolidation in that range through 2/28.
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Still looking for the test of 5039 for support (should happen by 2/29) to confirm re-accumulation phase is complete and ready to make next move higher.
If it bottoms before 5039 then it needs a break back above 5100 to confirm its ready.
Getting close, playing out just as expected.
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See what I'm saying...
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Hit 5141 today (just shy of 5153 target). I wouldn't be surprised if we get a pullback early next week to 5030-5070. If that range holds as support then we can continue higher.
I'll post an update over the weekend with specific forecast from here after I run updated analysis.
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Btw if you load new bars on this chart you'll see perhaps one of the most accurate forecasts on tradingview. Has followed my expected path (black arrow) nearly exactly from the jump.
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Wow it really loves my black arrow/forecast lol. Its almost as if it knows..
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Expecting this to continue higher to 5320 over the coming week.
Thanks for the analysis. You really need to figure out how to create a technical analysis indicators based on your strategies and sell it to people on this platform. I would buy it for sure. I’ve been following all of your analysis and it’s spot on for price targets (only the time frame may slightly differ like your prediction in January for Nvidia). The share price reached your prediction way faster (not your fault because of external unpredictable variables). I am holding a large portion of my portfolio in VOO for the long term and can’t wait to see that growth that you indicated. Thank you.
JerryManders
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@BuyAndHold209, I'm working on that, great idea - stay tuned!
Luck264
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Are you saying it will go down ? I think 508 to 509 from here
JerryManders
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@Luck264, load new bars, it will follow black path/forecast as it has been. Consolidation is almost over, then it will go up to SPY 513-520 (SPX500usd 5140-5210). Need confirmation still that consolidation is over, otherwise could still drop to 5039 (SPY 502) before breaking out.
Only_Losses
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Side note, I think you've implied that you think the top of this move will be around 5200 (maybe misremembering) but I think we will top out closer to 5400
JerryManders
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@Only_Losses, 5200 is still my point estimate but I see some confluence pointing 5320, so 5400 definitely possible
Only_Losses
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Following - I have also been very interested in entering a large position on the 28th.
bumbumbole
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This will likely hit 5088 today - 1 day ahead of schedule
kgautam28
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5320 wow okay, will continue to add calle
karthikworld
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@JerryManders SPX is holding 5100 do you see bullish or bearish. Thanks