We are seeing the exact same pattern as mid-late July. I have noted all the key events on the chart, including the down channels that have the exact same slope.
You can see in July that the S&P was able to clearly beak above the 0.854 fib level several times before making a clear breakout and then a retest. That clear level of bullishness was the trigger for the FOMO rally of August and September.
This time around, the S&P is not able to break above the 1.236 fib level. It has touched it several times, but each time it has been rejected. I would expect this to continue for the next few days.
On or around Dec 7th (Monday) the rising wedge intersects the down channel edge. I am willing to go out on a limb and say if it hits this line without breaking above 1.236(3681), then it will drop to at least the major (red) 1.146(3571) level.
Friday and Sunday afterhours/premarket will be the difference maker IMO. Can they bulls use the low volume times to push this market above, just like they have down since the March bottom?
Close up of recent
July
You can see in July that the S&P was able to clearly beak above the 0.854 fib level several times before making a clear breakout and then a retest. That clear level of bullishness was the trigger for the FOMO rally of August and September.
This time around, the S&P is not able to break above the 1.236 fib level. It has touched it several times, but each time it has been rejected. I would expect this to continue for the next few days.
On or around Dec 7th (Monday) the rising wedge intersects the down channel edge. I am willing to go out on a limb and say if it hits this line without breaking above 1.236(3681), then it will drop to at least the major (red) 1.146(3571) level.
Friday and Sunday afterhours/premarket will be the difference maker IMO. Can they bulls use the low volume times to push this market above, just like they have down since the March bottom?
Close up of recent
July
