zSplit
Long

Long-Term Forecast: The Market is Not Always Rational

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
Hello traders,

I wanted to just share my very simple - longer-term - chart to everyone. I've seen way too many "everything is going to crash right now" charts on here and its important to have some sort of a balance on this website, especially since the market is going to hit ATHs this Summer (like I've been saying since way back in April).

To keep it short, here are the major highlights:
1) Gap over current symmetrical triangle that I talked about a few days ago to the upside coming within a week or less.
2) Re-test of mid 3200s before the next quick correction.
3) 3400 by early August.
4) Short squeeze technically begins in Mid-July but picks-up in pace voraciously by August.
5) Marks tops sometime around Mid-September around 3900-4000.

Lets be clear here: A lot of people forecast the markets on what they WANT to happen. However, what you "want" and what "will" happen are two very different things.

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Contrary to what people are posting about in the Gold market, Gold will take a back-seat (soon; not quite yet), where 1660 will come in late July and another sharp correction in late August will slam Gold back down to re-test near the 1500 level.

The time to sell Gold will be mid-July and the time to re-buy Gold will be late August to early September for miners and late September to early October for buying paper Gold directly.

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And finally, whether Trump or Biden wins in 2020 has very little overall impact to the market. The market will eventually undergo a massive revaluation not only for equities, but for bonds as well (which is also a bubble). Whomever wins will only flick-the-switch a few months faster than the other.

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For those wanting to follow my daily analysis on Discord, kindly send me a message at zSplit#9971

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zSplit

Comments

1760 by september... doomsday cometh.
+2 Reply
Hmmm... Methinks nobody REALLY knows what the market will do. Its all just people taking sides, speculating, and hoping they're right...
+2 Reply
hi dear friend. I am waiting for your reply too. God bless you.
Reply
Has your opinion on this changed at all?
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What is your basis for this chart? Just trying to make an argument here, the $3800 SPX top could happen, if DXY dropped considerably, down to $80 level? Otherwise, QE is already at its peak and priced in; DXY is projected to go no lower than $95 level. Short-covering is unlikely to produce such a massive move up. Any other reason for SPX to rally another 800-1000 points?
Also, why would it drop into election? Expected to rally into Nov-Dec to support election period.
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Thank you!
Do you feel bullish the rest of this week or think they're just trying to hit a monthly green and it will tank tomorrow?
3351 in a week or less sounds crazy! I hope you are right, though! Not much room for red days with that outlook lol

Thanks in advance!
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Thank you for the great chart! How much low do you think it can go down in Dec or Jan?
Reply
zSplit sjin0001
@sjin0001, Hi,

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we are back around 2500-2600 sometime in Q1 2021 (i.e. March or April).

-zSplit
Reply
what is your technical base for making this Idea?
i thank that you explain it more
Reply
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