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PaulDeep19131
Jun 30, 2020 2:53 AM

Long-Term Forecast: The Market is Not Always Rational Long

US SPX 500OANDA

Description

Hello traders,

I wanted to just share my very simple - longer-term - chart to everyone. I've seen way too many "everything is going to crash right now" charts on here and its important to have some sort of a balance on this website, especially since the market is going to hit ATHs this Summer (like I've been saying since way back in April).

To keep it short, here are the major highlights:
1) Gap over current symmetrical triangle that I talked about a few days ago to the upside coming within a week or less.
2) Re-test of mid 3200s before the next quick correction.
3) 3400 by early August.
4) Short squeeze technically begins in Mid-July but picks-up in pace voraciously by August.
5) Marks tops sometime around Mid-September around 3900-4000.

Lets be clear here: A lot of people forecast the markets on what they WANT to happen. However, what you "want" and what "will" happen are two very different things.

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Contrary to what people are posting about in the Gold market, Gold will take a back-seat (soon; not quite yet), where 1660 will come in late July and another sharp correction in late August will slam Gold back down to re-test near the 1500 level.

The time to sell Gold will be mid-July and the time to re-buy Gold will be late August to early September for miners and late September to early October for buying paper Gold directly.

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And finally, whether Trump or Biden wins in 2020 has very little overall impact to the market. The market will eventually undergo a massive revaluation not only for equities, but for bonds as well (which is also a bubble). Whomever wins will only flick-the-switch a few months faster than the other.

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For those wanting to follow my daily analysis on Discord, kindly send me a message at zSplit#9971

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zSplit
Comments
leeshleeesh
Can you please post update to this with current market? thank you so much! your charts help
Reekardo
1760 by september... doomsday cometh.
Ymir1
Maybe time for a little update on this one?
DMark1
Hmmm... Methinks nobody REALLY knows what the market will do. Its all just people taking sides, speculating, and hoping they're right...
BeniGo
@DMark1, If that wouldn't be like this tradingview wouldn't exist and you wouldn't be a "trader".
tradexchart
What is your basis for this chart? Just trying to make an argument here, the $3800 SPX top could happen, if DXY dropped considerably, down to $80 level? Otherwise, QE is already at its peak and priced in; DXY is projected to go no lower than $95 level. Short-covering is unlikely to produce such a massive move up. Any other reason for SPX to rally another 800-1000 points?
Also, why would it drop into election? Expected to rally into Nov-Dec to support election period.
UnknownUnicorn4762443
what is your technical base for making this Idea?
i thank that you explain it more
flyers181
You're spot on as usual. Great analysis!
UnknownUnicorn4762443
hi dear friend. I am waiting for your reply too. God bless you.
leeshleeesh
Has your opinion on this changed at all?
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