SPX500 | CPI in Focus as the Market Waits for a Breakout

Aug 11

The S&P 500 ended Monday nearly unchanged as investors balanced renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations against optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could eventually reopen, easing pressure on oil prices and inflation.

Market sentiment remains supported by strong second-quarter earnings, while last week's weaker U.S. jobs report has reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike. However, all eyes are now on this week's U.S. CPI inflation report, which is expected to be the primary catalyst for the next major move in equities.

Technically

The market remains in a bearish consolidation between 7740 and 7777, awaiting a confirmed breakout.

As long as the price remains below 7777, the bearish correction is expected to continue toward 7710. A break below 7710 would expose the next downside target at 7622.

However, a 1H or 4H candle close above 7777 would invalidate the bearish scenario and support a bullish move toward 7809, followed by 7850 and 7924.

Pivot Line: 7777
Support: 7740 – 7710 – 7622
Resistance: 7809 – 7850 – 7924

Aug 14

Trade active

SPX500 | Earnings Keep Bulls in Control Despite Fed Uncertainty

🟠Investors continue to balance concerns over interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions against another strong earnings season that has helped keep U.S. equities near record highs.

🟠With the Federal Reserve offering little guidance on its next policy move, market participants are increasingly relying on corporate earnings—particularly continued investment in AI infrastructure—to justify current valuations and sustain bullish momentum.

🕯 Technically
The market maintains a bullish structure while trading above 7777.

➡️ As long as this level holds, the next upside targets remain 7850 and 7924. A temporary correction toward 7777 is possible before buyers attempt another move higher.
➡️ On the other hand, a 1H or 4H candle close below 7777 would shift momentum to the downside and support a correction toward 7740, followed by 7709.

Aug 18

Trade closed: target reached

SPX500 | Geopolitical Escalation Keeps Bears in Control

🟠 U.S. stock futures moved lower as fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement pushed oil prices higher and Treasury yields toward multi-year highs, renewing concerns that elevated energy prices could keep inflationary pressures persistent.

🟠 Sentiment deteriorated further after Iran signaled a shift toward a more aggressive military posture as negotiations stalled, while the expiration of the temporary ceasefire added another layer of uncertainty. For U.S. equities, continued escalation and higher oil and bond yields remain key downside risks.