The bulls are struggling, a real break might be due to be made.
I'm always sceptical of one-sided momentum. It rarely lasts and when you get against it you tend to end up with 1:4 RR or better. The market is not making run-away breaks 3/4 times (When it does, it gets really easy for everyone and then we end up with a big shift in direction - see 2021).
So, when we get one candle taking out 4 candles on the daily chart my natural tendency is to look at the ways that move might fail and turn into a big correction or even a full out reversal.
I've given SPX fair chance to do this during the recent drop but we've taken out the big support level for bulls and we're showing pretty weak price action around the next support.
If SPX keeps selling without getting over 3960 today we might be seeing what will later be clear to see was the big breaking of the market. If we're making the real break, we'd see very significant selling over the next 6 weeks. Probably moderately so in the next 2 weeks relative to the weeks to follow but a progressive building up of selling turning into a spectacular move down.
For this to happen we'd probably have to see some of the worst one-day point declines in SPX history sometime during the next 6 weeks.
So, when we get one candle taking out 4 candles on the daily chart my natural tendency is to look at the ways that move might fail and turn into a big correction or even a full out reversal.
I've given SPX fair chance to do this during the recent drop but we've taken out the big support level for bulls and we're showing pretty weak price action around the next support.
If SPX keeps selling without getting over 3960 today we might be seeing what will later be clear to see was the big breaking of the market. If we're making the real break, we'd see very significant selling over the next 6 weeks. Probably moderately so in the next 2 weeks relative to the weeks to follow but a progressive building up of selling turning into a spectacular move down.
For this to happen we'd probably have to see some of the worst one-day point declines in SPX history sometime during the next 6 weeks.